NBA · resolved market

Will the New Orleans Pelicans win more than 30.5 regular season games in 2025–26?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35d4c895922c49d59ea09eedf6bbf2e7dc52c363225e6ce5b6a6489e9ce10965

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $30,817
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $28,522

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,817 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8401…a498backed Yes	11c	1,149$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.39	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bef…1e38backed Yes	11c	965$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.15	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed Yes	11c	938$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.18	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	36cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Yes	14c	763.15$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.68	182	46.7%85 W · 97 L	+7.6wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes	7c	650$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.04	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-3.2wins	-0.13per pick	42cpaid	-54%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	5c	586.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.31	89	4.5%4 W · 85 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88c4…758bbacked Yes	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-2.7wins	-0.27per pick	47cpaid	-63.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes	11c	472$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.92	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.85	80	20%16 W · 64 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4582…7699backed Yes	11c	368$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.48	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6587…4f63backed Yes	6c	356$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.36	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d58…34e0backed Yes	6c	326$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.56	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	41cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf5c…3912backed No	79c	324.86$256 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.17	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+4.0wins	+0.19per pick	52cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes	4c	299.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	79	15.2%12 W · 67 L	+5.5wins	+0.07per pick	8cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03e7…9948backed Yes	11c	297.22$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.24per pick	37cpaid	-83.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed Yes	14c	293$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.02	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-3.4wins	-0.17per pick	47cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes	8c	278$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5829…e46bbacked Yes	6c	266$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.96	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	44cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa906…84e4backed Yes	10c	260$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+1.8wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	6c	243.17$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.81	150	10%15 W · 135 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a79…1ccbbacked Yes	11c	230$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7321…1812backed Yes	7c	218$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.26	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc23a…c60fbacked Yes	12c	216$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.89	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked Yes	12c	200$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	16	50%8 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x722f…f17fbacked Yes	7c	193$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.51	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes	6c	178$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.68	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1e1…d9c1backed Yes	9c	176$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-2.3wins	-0.15per pick	52cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa232…175fbacked Yes	10c	175$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.14per pick	44cpaid	+63.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf528…4441backed Yes	7c	152$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-33%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	9c	150$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	608	34.4%209 W · 399 L	+8.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes	10c	122$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-2.4wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes	10c	120$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	44cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed No	56c	110$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.9	227	50.2%114 W · 113 L	+24.8wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x23c1…704bbacked Yes	11c	106$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.66	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.14per pick	35cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c57…c2e0backed Yes	10c	106$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd9b…b6aabacked No	55c	55.9$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.15	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a67…af26backed No	58c	51.72$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.72	42	66.7%28 W · 14 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	66cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes	46c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf96c…9014backed No	55c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	57	56.1%32 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	+5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed No	50c	24.47$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	382	39.5%151 W · 231 L	+35.9wins	+0.09per pick	30cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	55c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	141	39%55 W · 86 L	-6.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the New Orleans Pelicans win more than 30.5 regular season games in 2025–26?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event