Commodities · resolved market
Will fewer than 2 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cdc498d5d41019cb338d0b77726284f5986d064e796fb0404c6843f9f15fbbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 2,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 62c | 1,914$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,166$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed No | 38c | 1,108$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed Yes | 62c | 1,050$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked No | 38c | 1,018$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 13c | 990$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes | 61c | 890$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 39c | 840.75$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.9 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 18c | 800$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed Yes | 62c | 762$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6007…9553backed No | 38c | 659$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed No | 38c | 654$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 30cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…7754backed No | 38c | 601$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 29cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 15c | 499.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked No | 39c | 457$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +482.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed No | 36c | 453$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked No | 39c | 453$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 38cpaid | +167.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed Yes | 64c | 453$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x943c…1d17backed Yes | 38c | 317.95$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 53cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…4165backed Yes | 62c | 314$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 51c | 284.37$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06e…47eebacked No | 59c | 228.15$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…e6efbacked Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 49c | 194$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 7c | 180.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 47c | 157$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 53c | 99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.53 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…aa1dbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 53c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd7…96d3backed Yes | 43c | 53.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…7931backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes | 47c | 42.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cea…0685backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…a58ebacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 36c | 38.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3916…aef5backed No | 53c | 31.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…510dbacked No | 53c | 25.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +222.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb867…a870backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 45c | 23.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6c…445fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 2 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?this page
- Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
- Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
- Will 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
- Will 6–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
- Will 8–9 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.