Commodities · resolved market
Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb29ee02c2c4e919abbfba884743e5ce681f967aa051a17bbe369f1562dec9bad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafc0…5087backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 77c | 2,328$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.46 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 78c | 2,044$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.99 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 54c | 1,623$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.94 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked Yes | 43c | 953$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…6487backed No | 57c | 953$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked Yes | 17c | 880$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked Yes | 17c | 877$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f6…736fbacked Yes | 12c | 865.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 746.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c38…291fbacked Yes | 24c | 714$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 33c | 608.78$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.28 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9774…6d3cbacked Yes | 43c | 542$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked No | 57c | 542$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 30c | 523.57$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.23 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 21c | 469.11$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…f9c2backed No | 79c | 402.7$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 75cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 26c | 397$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.51 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 15c | 393.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…0a00backed Yes | 46c | 301.9$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…ceb2backed Yes | 30c | 294.44$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.02 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 52c | 293.86$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.25 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 52c | 258.33$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.18 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed No | 68c | 256.74$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 21c | 238.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc39…8faabacked Yes | 37c | 234.85$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d88…39d8backed Yes | 14c | 190.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…fca2backed No | 16c | 183.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +512.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc92f…20b2backed Yes | 25c | 179.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked No | 10c | 169$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.1 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked No | 40c | 157.91$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.35 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 45c | 145.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 16c | 144.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…d3d6backed Yes | 11c | 133.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 38c | 122.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…76bdbacked No | 74c | 120.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 56c | 119.17$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 18c | 116$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 60c | 114.87$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…0a93backed No | 63c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 26c | 108.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 102.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…5f28backed Yes | 30c | 99.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed No | 58c | 99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked No | 71c | 94.07$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 27 | 92.6%25 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 74cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked Yes | 29c | 94.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 15c | 87.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 20c | 83.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked No | 65c | 80.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed No | 72c | 75.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed No | 60c | 57.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3b…6b17backed No | 35c | 57.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 43c | 57.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 36c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…7931backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9634…aae2backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd50…150abacked No | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 47.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 26c | 46.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 29c | 39.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…8b89backed No | 34c | 39.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 46c | 36.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdabe…3363backed No | 53c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 27.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…9ea4backed No | 74c | 26.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed No | 56c | 26.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 55c | 26.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4200…bf8cbacked No | 77c | 26.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9772…a7e0backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 50c | 25.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc992…7994backed No | 64c | 21.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?this page
- Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
- Will 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
- Will 6–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
- Will 8–9 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?Yes won
- Will fewer than 2 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.