Commodities · resolved market
Will 6–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa39e59a436f93cd170395a2ad3595a62149f4bf8919157052fbb88fbad9a1208
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x860d…b327backed Yes | 2c | 2,415$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe62…6d76backed Yes | 18c | 912$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa10a…b31bbacked Yes | 2c | 811.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 768.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 24c | 676.24$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.41 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 339.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 5c | 335.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…c0efbacked Yes | 7c | 305.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 9c | 261.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 36c | 260$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.62 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 26c | 239.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 59c | 219.29$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.19 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…a7d5backed No | 65c | 150.4$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 125.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked Yes | 18c | 124.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 15c | 114.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 10c | 109$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3a…e29abacked Yes | 14c | 106.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…7931backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 17c | 86.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5969…5bedbacked No | 76c | 75.96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…2f7ebacked Yes | 22c | 73.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 24c | 63.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 66c | 59.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 75c | 54.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed No | 56c | 50.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 24c | 43.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4b…8125backed No | 64c | 36.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…bcc2backed No | 72c | 27.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…c1d7backed Yes | 52c | 25.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 80c | 13.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 6–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?this page
- Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
- Will 2–3 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
- Will 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
- Will 8–9 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?Yes won
- Will fewer than 2 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.