World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf67237df5f98f52e247ed64f1cbef439126993ca0f88361928ce66bf8ab086b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed No | 74c | 1,001$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 14c | 734$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 27c | 716.69$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.85 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…59d6backed Yes | 25c | 644$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed No | 75c | 563$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked Yes | 26c | 515$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed Yes | 26c | 376$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…6411backed No | 74c | 366$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f3…a7fabacked No | 79c | 284$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 21c | 284$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 26c | 268$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 73c | 265.66$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed Yes | 26c | 218$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed No | 75c | 218$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…1b43backed Yes | 14c | 195$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 30c | 135.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed No | 75c | 110.8$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked Yes | 28c | 108.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…a734backed No | 66c | 104.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…031abacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked Yes | 17c | 99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…08cbbacked Yes | 25c | 94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed No | 68c | 83.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +37%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed No | 68c | 79.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 79.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…3ecebacked Yes | 29c | 77.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2a…e715backed Yes | 34c | 52.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…bf55backed Yes | 34c | 51.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee7…04adbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…e287backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…0a00backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4660…cda2backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 68c | 24.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…e28bbacked No | 70c | 20.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd18…f267backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d76…5169backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…f5bdbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67a…af94backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…ec26backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…a180backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…a96bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cce…04c3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…2ca9backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 72c | 18.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Starmer say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Conservative" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Equality" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Labour" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Radcliffe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Restore Britain" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.