World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a4f81def0ce9efc1c0da853368ff214f16e4b7df70660efdbdadd541afd1711
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 54c | 1,220$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.86 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed No | 55c | 932$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed Yes | 45c | 931$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed No | 38c | 472$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed No | 56c | 423.96$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.53 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…75b7backed No | 55c | 415$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed Yes | 45c | 415$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked Yes | 62c | 397$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +226.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked Yes | 22c | 396$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…0451backed No | 78c | 396$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 41c | 388$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.85 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4b…7ec6backed No | 48c | 361.3$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked No | 34c | 309.29$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.29 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked No | 55c | 291$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.95 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 49c | 287.62$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.02 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 36c | 235.65$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.95 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 62c | 217$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.54 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed No | 47c | 207.03$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 55c | 204.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.85 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…3699backed Yes | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…eadcbacked Yes | 45c | 183$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed Yes | 46c | 153$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 34c | 152.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed No | 38c | 142$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 37c | 134.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed No | 56c | 110$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed Yes | 45c | 109$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 74c | 100.61$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…7547backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3902…2721backed Yes | 49c | 86.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed No | 37c | 79.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…63d7backed No | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…22ebbacked No | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked No | 39c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 45c | 60.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 70c | 60.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98f1…fa84backed No | 53c | 52.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…ca09backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a3…2eacbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…6e19backed Yes | 65c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1e…c5e3backed Yes | 73c | 47.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 71c | 47.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2931…deefbacked No | 52c | 44.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa67a…af94backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…8ec6backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 33.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac5…30bebacked Yes | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 62c | 30.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +11.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…c200backed Yes | 63c | 27.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…afdebacked No | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes | 56c | 25.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13e…1223backed Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbb…0aa1backed Yes | 61c | 24.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd67…fb31backed No | 60c | 20.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4c…fbc2backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ec…d073backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc39…0320backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0705…3760backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…7560backed Yes | 67c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Starmer say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Conservative" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Equality" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Labour" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Radcliffe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Restore Britain" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.