World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94fdb6ebef63dfc22c68928715e888542edb3c2e38daa97b792e4b308ff41db0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6f0…d8a0backed No | 3c | 633.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked No | 79c | 379.37$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed No | 56c | 325.6$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.44 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 70c | 223$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.01 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed Yes | 57c | 221.39$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.84 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed Yes | 53c | 205.24$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.46 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +37%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 49c | 192.3$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 45c | 152.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.32 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 151.32$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…7547backed Yes | 55c | 118.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 48c | 105$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…85ecbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 56c | 99.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3159backed Yes | 19c | 99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…c200backed Yes | 24c | 90.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…22ebbacked Yes | 58c | 82.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed No | 76c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked Yes | 36c | 77.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed No | 35c | 72.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1432…6144backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…980fbacked Yes | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…6e19backed Yes | 56c | 68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 56c | 56.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 38c | 51.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 57c | 51.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea4f…f77ebacked Yes | 45c | 44.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 42c | 40.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed No | 54c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…83e9backed No | 44c | 39.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac63…f2fabacked Yes | 57c | 39.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1db…87edbacked Yes | 57c | 37.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9277…112abacked No | 44c | 37.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…019abacked Yes | 57c | 34.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…4668backed No | 44c | 31.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…afdebacked Yes | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…0f43backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…9cbdbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504e…97ccbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9724…b5f5backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5a…702cbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82e8…cd3ebacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…6d14backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…cedabacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Starmer say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Conservative" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Equality" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Labour" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Radcliffe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Restore Britain" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.