World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc18a4e2ccdf6aa6d99486a94aa7f1317b560682da80b3d5e2523600c6d50f1f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 25c | 915.5$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.13 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 76c | 893$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed No | 75c | 752.3$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.07 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed Yes | 24c | 525$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed No | 77c | 522$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.57 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked No | 70c | 458$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked Yes | 30c | 458$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Yes | 24c | 368$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed Yes | 23c | 306$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…031abacked Yes | 22c | 222$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…6e19backed Yes | 24c | 145$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…f78abacked No | 72c | 140.74$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…d3a5backed No | 70c | 127.63$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +5.9wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7905…a886backed Yes | 24c | 123.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 115.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Yes | 30c | 85.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed No | 69c | 79.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 18c | 63.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 79c | 48.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 73c | 43.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +11.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef93…9f0dbacked Yes | 28c | 36.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4660…cda2backed No | 73c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…7ca4backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 74c | 25.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 76c | 23.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa67a…af94backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Starmer say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Conservative" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Equality" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Labour" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Radcliffe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Restore Britain" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.