World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "Equality" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb05ced44283ca44d09f67c01aec043f152446a4169ef0f68ddc9b03548b70dc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed No | 55c | 899$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed Yes | 45c | 602$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed Yes | 26c | 577$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed No | 74c | 501$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes | 45c | 297$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.54 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 74c | 295$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed No | 77c | 288.76$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.76 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 37c | 238.44$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.16 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb015…734bbacked Yes | 8c | 178.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed No | 53c | 164.11$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…6baabacked Yes | 26c | 119$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +109%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 49c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67a…af94backed Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c19…77cdbacked Yes | 39c | 44.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +160.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked No | 61c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…1e17backed Yes | 45c | 33.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 30.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…e426backed No | 71c | 26.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…b180backed No | 63c | 24.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 56c | 20.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd18…f267backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…db66backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…dd09backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2439…4558backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…33e2backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fe…ef67backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…96bbbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…5ea6backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…aceebacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d1…124abacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd63d…5391backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd67…fb31backed No | 62c | 18.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "Equality" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Starmer say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Conservative" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Labour" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Radcliffe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Restore Britain" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.