Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0f1361eacb81803caf7f5fe0bc2283f785ac74fe5e8a01424f4c453e5260483

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 25, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $10,121
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,320

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,121 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcf7e…35b7backed No	1c	1,200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed Yes	68c	976$664 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312.32	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…0137backed No	32c	902$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.64	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes	57c	785$447 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$337.55	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+62%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ab…56e8backed No	43c	616$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.88	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86a2…02c0backed No	47c	527$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.69	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x87fd…66bcbacked Yes	53c	443$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.21	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.27per pick	53cpaid	+113.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x34be…6797backed Yes	70c	370$259 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc771…e858backed No	30c	364$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.2	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8383…75b7backed No	30c	310$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	49cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…24f0backed Yes	70c	304$213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.2	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa20…fd0dbacked Yes	60c	278.1$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.54	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	66cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed No	36c	213.93$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.1	43	67.4%29 W · 14 L	+5.4wins	+0.13per pick	55cpaid	+22%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	67c	199.99$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66	549	34.6%190 W · 359 L	-37.0wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5829…e46bbacked No	32c	174$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.68	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	+39.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f7b…03e0backed No	40c	170.19$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.84	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d5…2e11backed No	43c	169$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.67	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.15per pick	46cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No	41c	95.99$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.36	142	25.4%36 W · 106 L	-8.0wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd29f…26b4backed Yes	68c	95$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.4	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.21per pick	51cpaid	+50.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeef6…7547backed Yes	59c	84.75$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.75	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18fa…3730backed Yes	53c	84$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.48	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.2wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	+84.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5986…83e3backed No	26c	80$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No	24c	61.26$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.98	53	34%18 W · 35 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb51c…502dbacked No	40c	60$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	55cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9c1…0791backed No	33c	60$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	103	54.4%56 W · 47 L	+6.8wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fa9…22ebbacked No	43c	58.14$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+3.5wins	+0.14per pick	42cpaid	+47%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x98cc…852fbacked Yes	74c	42$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.12	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+2.7wins	+0.15per pick	46cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51ae…ce30backed Yes	62c	40$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.2	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+1.6wins	+0.23per pick	63cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked Yes	58c	39.58$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.71	55	63.6%35 W · 20 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	70cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No	36c	37.95$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	78	33.3%26 W · 52 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe13e…1223backed Yes	57c	33.2$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.36	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes	69c	31.56$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.78	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	+2.5wins	+0.09per pick	35cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x370b…5f2cbacked No	44c	29.33$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	38	31.6%12 W · 26 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes	53c	28.5$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.51	444	28.8%128 W · 316 L	-67.6wins	-0.15per pick	44cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x4e8d…6d9cbacked Yes	72c	28$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.84	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	69cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f74…6e19backed Yes	57c	26$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.18	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd0…53b4backed Yes	66c	22.44$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.6	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+51.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x899c…d868backed Yes	59c	22$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.04	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.3wins	-0.18per pick	41cpaid	-65.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes	66c	20.98$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.15	79	32.9%26 W · 53 L	-5.2wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes	60c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe67a…c44dbacked Yes	66c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.8	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+127.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d8b…00a3backed Yes	68c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.4	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes	72c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.6	91	52.7%48 W · 43 L	-6.8wins	-0.07per pick	60cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa598…2ff3backed Yes	69c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.2	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+2.1wins	+0.15per pick	42cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4000…dad6backed Yes	59c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.2	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	58c	18.03$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.53	38	26.3%10 W · 28 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event