World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d0b6fa1af06079efd4fa928d62af6920f17c3983f9678e2d0044998d7da364a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa406…bd18backed No | 74c | 540$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549a…71d0backed Yes | 31c | 504.89$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +155.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +147.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked Yes | 26c | 498$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 74c | 498$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.52 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…3c25backed No | 72c | 409$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 405.95$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.14 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d04…131dbacked Yes | 28c | 325$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 4c | 312$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1e…c5e3backed Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked No | 77c | 130.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 26c | 110.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.57 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 28c | 103$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…b2c0backed No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 99.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…3070backed Yes | 29c | 86.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed No | 51c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4660…cda2backed No | 60c | 33.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab2f…40c2backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a09…0f4cbacked No | 73c | 25.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…0d4cbacked No | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 72c | 18.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Starmer say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Conservative" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Equality" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Labour" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Radcliffe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Restore Britain" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.