World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30870ce374e788eb6e6d502f46ba8b5f787b0285caa1effa7831389fdb42c069
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed Yes | 11c | 1,011$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed Yes | 13c | 549$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed No | 78c | 493.32$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.39 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 14c | 425$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 13c | 388$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 17c | 368.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed Yes | 16c | 331$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 10c | 216.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 20c | 169$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…d3a5backed No | 78c | 167.07$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +5.9wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 148$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…e53dbacked Yes | 14c | 143.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab1…6293backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 13c | 94.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…6be5backed Yes | 19c | 59.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eae…3370backed Yes | 22c | 59.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…27f2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…2eddbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…a6cdbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…0287backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Starmer say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Conservative" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Equality" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Labour" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Radcliffe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Restore Britain" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.