World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "Restore Britain" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03e7a351bea910ba36bb1c8fac76fa33c09a8e150308dd0dc6c77415fac3988f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2566…7d60backed Yes | 14c | 1,030$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203f…f7a5backed Yes | 16c | 937.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed Yes | 17c | 579$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 17c | 566.32$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.07 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 23c | 409.83$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.82 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 16c | 220$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +142%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1e…49d9backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 18c | 184$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 78c | 144.18$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4f…f77ebacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 24c | 112.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed No | 79c | 112.2$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed Yes | 13c | 80.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5a…702cbacked Yes | 16c | 66.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…b468backed No | 78c | 44.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…b2c0backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…0315backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "Restore Britain" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Starmer say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Conservative" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Equality" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Labour" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Radcliffe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.