World Politics · resolved market
Will Starmer say "Conservative" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x378af2041277886d5a99d1b69e3f1e13c24b92923ed4101a55d1c3cd946a746b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0acc…debabacked No | 33c | 658$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…bf21backed Yes | 67c | 549$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.83 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb068…4f34backed Yes | 75c | 397.96$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c1…0791backed No | 21c | 371.69$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.82 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 65c | 360$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.7 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…083dbacked No | 37c | 295.31$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.31 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 69c | 261.34$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.23 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked Yes | 67c | 199$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.33 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa406…bd18backed No | 22c | 196.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.23 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9a…a377backed Yes | 79c | 196$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 25c | 140$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.1 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…502dbacked Yes | 78c | 140$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed No | 26c | 140$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…22ebbacked No | 18c | 136.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.44 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 65c | 130$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 127$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.17 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 75c | 93.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No | 33c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 74c | 70.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4b…7ec6backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…6d9cbacked Yes | 63c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c9…4a47backed Yes | 75c | 26.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7de…85b5backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e82…507fbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5111…4562backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc592…6e23backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 76c | 19.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…eb29backed Yes | 66c | 17.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 75c | 13.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Starmer say "Conservative" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?this page
- Will Starmer say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Dialogue" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Equality" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Labour" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Mandelson" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Radcliffe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Reform" 3+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Yes won
- Will Starmer say "Restore Britain" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
- Will Starmer say "Rules-based" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.