Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50e90a6d951b7d03f7103c57f20fed03ab02c81df571f110cdf1b1733f56d7d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 67c | 560.88$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.16 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 71c | 513.08$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.75 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 53c | 463.09$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.53 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 68c | 343.23$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 30c | 296.48$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.47 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 76c | 279.29$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 276.36$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.93 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 20c | 261.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.64 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 219.08$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 215.8$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 210.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 159.27$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 79c | 127.36$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 126.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 34c | 120.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.26 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 20c | 117$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed No | 71c | 112.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.53 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 32c | 112.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 112.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 71c | 107$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 28c | 105.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.52 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 26c | 104.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 74c | 102.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 28c | 99.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 90.28$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 69c | 88.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1575…ac63backed No | 65c | 77.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…5941backed Yes | 33c | 76.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 71.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 75c | 70.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…1e8abacked Yes | 30c | 67.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +6.5wins | +0.34per pick | 34cpaid | +195.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 53c | 66.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 55c | 64.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 22c | 63.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 63.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb6…85afbacked No | 40c | 62.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 57.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 57.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 71c | 57.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 47.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 32c | 45.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 42.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 33c | 41.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 30c | 41.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 27c | 40.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 38c | 40.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 39.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 41c | 38.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 30c | 35.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…bc60backed Yes | 58c | 33.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 40c | 32.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 54c | 32.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 46c | 27.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 80c | 24.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 66c | 20.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 67c | 19.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 71c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 18.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 64c | 17.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked No | 68c | 14.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.