Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe48a6859cca4982ca91b5d0d54c08a338d9b586c14ec9e24348840c2dd8b5303
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 177 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 9,944$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.75 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 63c | 1,579$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.42 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 934.71$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.86 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 79c | 797.82$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.48 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 26c | 742$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.72 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 39c | 696.61$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.68 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 70c | 602.68$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.83 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 79c | 571.92$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.41 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…301cbacked Yes | 52c | 482.47$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 76c | 459.44$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.03 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 43c | 454.11$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.71 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 72c | 440.21$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.33 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 421.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.91 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 34c | 420.69$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.13 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 47c | 374.4$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 33c | 355.93$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.79 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 41c | 321.77$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.21 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 306$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 35c | 285.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.27 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 72c | 273.44$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 267.32$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034a…0469backed Yes | 55c | 254.71$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.63 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 23c | 218.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.43 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 216.3$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 38c | 210.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 54c | 203.18$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.77 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 53c | 203.08$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.08 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 66c | 200$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 75c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb9…191abacked No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 32c | 198.04$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.03 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 72c | 198$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 197$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Yes | 46c | 192$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 53c | 190$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 178$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.08 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 44c | 169.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.38 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 32c | 168$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdd…e7b3backed Yes | 45c | 167.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 33c | 164.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b3…955fbacked Yes | 78c | 157.64$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…bc60backed No | 63c | 150.93$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed No | 60c | 150.39$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 55c | 140.72$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 39c | 131$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 129.44$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.57 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 51c | 129.05$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…3fdfbacked Yes | 68c | 122.69$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 116.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 35c | 112$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 23c | 109.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.68 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 48c | 107.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 48c | 105.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 73c | 104.1$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 37c | 102.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.59 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…92e9backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…5cc2backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 58c | 99.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 55c | 97.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1de3…c880backed Yes | 41c | 97.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 96.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 74c | 95.24$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…81b4backed Yes | 37c | 94.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 34c | 90.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 65c | 90.35$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 89.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 15c | 89.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f16…016bbacked Yes | 61c | 89.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 18c | 87.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 36c | 82.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 40c | 81.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 80.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8651…8a35backed Yes | 38c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e4…e2afbacked Yes | 58c | 78.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 28c | 78.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e0…c5aabacked Yes | 79c | 76.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked No | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 50c | 74.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 46c | 74.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 30c | 72.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 72.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7921…bbc3backed Yes | 37c | 71.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 80c | 70.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…feb9backed Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 68.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 66.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 62c | 64.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 48c | 61.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 60.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or below on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.