Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb04d4c8567eb641214820b2b1a0b155a9b5249b020d04204287effa11bb22363
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 9,814$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…a847backed Yes | 1c | 8,408$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 5c | 1,400$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 26c | 1,101$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.38 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 25c | 958$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.32 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked No | 78c | 898.96$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.63 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 16c | 817.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.75 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 29c | 621.97$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.58 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 16c | 595.71$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.34 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 77c | 510.28$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.79 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 497.37$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 18c | 440.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcda…05b8backed Yes | 18c | 384.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 32c | 356.18$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.87 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 78c | 327.09$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 75c | 324.34$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdd…e7b3backed Yes | 20c | 295.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 19c | 278.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 253.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 20c | 238.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 230.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 33c | 230.04$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.87 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 75c | 207.34$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 78c | 199.02$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 198.55$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 21c | 170.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 71c | 168.02$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 29c | 158.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 79c | 157.56$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 154.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 149.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 21c | 148.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 15c | 144.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…eec9backed Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 16c | 139.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 9c | 133$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329f…81b4backed Yes | 19c | 130.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed Yes | 19c | 125.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 16c | 118.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c25…3703backed Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 18c | 107.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 69c | 97.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 94.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 26c | 94.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 24c | 90.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 29c | 90.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed No | 79c | 88.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 70c | 85.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a6…9351backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 20c | 68.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1de3…c880backed No | 79c | 66.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 30c | 62.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 71c | 55.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 72c | 55.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 78c | 50.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 32c | 46.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e0…b306backed No | 71c | 46.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 69c | 41.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…d584backed No | 77c | 40.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 39.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 39.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 28c | 38.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 36.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 79c | 34.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 27.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 78c | 27.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…b9e2backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 75c | 19.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125d…baf6backed No | 75c | 19.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 71c | 19.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 78c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…90a8backed No | 76c | 16.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 71c | 16.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…13afbacked No | 79c | 16.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…5516backed No | 75c | 15.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29fd…5d70backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 80c | 14.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or below on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.