Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb617069a0c78254f147ad3f3a50a5dbb223ce5c50d5485ee334274301bf51cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 22c | 2,777$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,176.7 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 1,152$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.09 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed Yes | 25c | 892$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.98 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 74c | 723.13$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.83 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 22c | 603.97$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.37 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea7…7fc0backed No | 80c | 600$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcda…05b8backed Yes | 21c | 495.11$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.21 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 22c | 400.78$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.02 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 393.82$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.52 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 329.73$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.43 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 329.12$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 284$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.83 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 75c | 270$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.32 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 266.05$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 15c | 241.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.63 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 5c | 239.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 235.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 62c | 234.78$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.21 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes | 61c | 234.2$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.19 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…e6f1backed Yes | 23c | 222.85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.05 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 19c | 214.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.09 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 210.62$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.87 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 75c | 204.18$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.14 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 53c | 191.19$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.54 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 183.76$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.74 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 21c | 183.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.09 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 17c | 178.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.99 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 16c | 175.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.06 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 24c | 167.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 21c | 167.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.82 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 19c | 158.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.97 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 36c | 153.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 51c | 149.87$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.87 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 148.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 25c | 148$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 27c | 144.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.47 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 33c | 143.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 142.18$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 25c | 140$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 27c | 139.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.23 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 73c | 136.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 131.28$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.23 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 57c | 122.31$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 33c | 114.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 114.72$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 15c | 109.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 24c | 108.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.37 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 21c | 105.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 30c | 101.52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.71 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 52c | 98.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c25…3703backed Yes | 23c | 96.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.08 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2b…0dd7backed Yes | 27c | 93.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 18c | 92.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 35c | 91.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4824…a847backed Yes | 18c | 90.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 78c | 88.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 21c | 86.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 82.11$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 80c | 82$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 24c | 81.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 21c | 80.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…d584backed Yes | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 79.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 79.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe647…8e93backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +249.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 22c | 78.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…9bd0backed Yes | 26c | 77.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 69c | 77.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 69c | 77.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.26 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 34c | 77.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 15c | 76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.42 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 24c | 73.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 26c | 73.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 21c | 72.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 26c | 72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 29c | 71.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 70c | 71.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 24c | 70.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 65.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 49c | 64.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 65c | 64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 20c | 62.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 71c | 60.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 49c | 60.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 33c | 60.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3c…4929backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 24c | 59.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 23c | 58.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 69c | 57.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or below on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.