Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x543fcf4637bc0e8a59bcd85ed35fff7dd469925a9c12630d1894813fb226720e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 1,973$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 8c | 1,391$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.81 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 8c | 1,365$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.21 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 39c | 1,167$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 80c | 1,118$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.26 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 14c | 1,092$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.96 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 1,033$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.97 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 7c | 1,033$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 8c | 1,001$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 31c | 999.93$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.98 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 3c | 931.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 17c | 809.55$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.81 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 17c | 791.09$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.74 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed No | 79c | 686.04$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.11 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 20c | 634.13$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.07 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 601.5$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.46 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa067…0a3ebacked Yes | 36c | 584.28$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.18 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 7c | 546.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 80c | 476.96$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.96 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 417.2$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.83 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…416cbacked Yes | 11c | 388.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 381.39$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.97 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 11c | 374.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 72c | 372.68$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.64 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…bc60backed No | 75c | 361.93$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.77 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 13c | 352.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 10c | 344.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 4c | 333.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 330.84$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.57 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…43aabacked Yes | 32c | 309.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 18c | 288.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 27c | 274.46$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed No | 75c | 272.97$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed No | 77c | 260.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.27 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 13c | 255.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 24c | 249.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 70c | 243.93$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 13c | 243.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 26c | 240.95$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 35c | 239.37$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 239.27$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 11c | 223.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 12c | 206.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 67c | 198.72$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked Yes | 13c | 198.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed No | 75c | 198.12$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 27c | 187.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 184.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 25c | 180.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 73c | 174.82$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 20c | 174.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 6c | 170$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 160.32$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 73c | 157.86$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 157.35$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 154.56$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 24c | 153.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24b5…d8dbbacked Yes | 13c | 144.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273f…ef14backed Yes | 23c | 131.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 127.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 72c | 124.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 63c | 124$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 120.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 117.4$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 32c | 117.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 17c | 116.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 114.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 14c | 112$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 35c | 110.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 108.72$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.66 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 101$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b8…cccfbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 35c | 98.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 18c | 98.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 98.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 14c | 97.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 17c | 91.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 75c | 87.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 36c | 86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…33e8backed Yes | 13c | 85.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 85.71$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 79.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 77.79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 71.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 34c | 66.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 69c | 66.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 66.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 29c | 63.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 62c | 63.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 18c | 61.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 33c | 60.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 23c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.