Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33ce9d844af7e3fa4f1dd443b07728acefbe0261e23d81b8e753951931b464d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 1,661$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.14 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 18c | 544.54$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.81 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 533.92$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.54 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 22c | 455.24$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 18c | 323.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 20c | 321.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 24c | 280.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 22c | 262.72$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 76c | 259.8$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked No | 76c | 226.3$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 19c | 216.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 17c | 214.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed Yes | 17c | 208.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 19c | 200.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b6…92d5backed No | 78c | 199.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 63cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 195.01$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 168.8$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 15c | 159.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 18c | 159.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 158.86$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 15c | 154.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 150.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 12c | 147.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 15c | 144.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 75c | 143$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 16c | 139.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x291e…c0e2backed Yes | 9c | 123.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 20c | 123.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 22c | 121.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked No | 76c | 120.43$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b32…638bbacked Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 115$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 16c | 100.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 16c | 100.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 19c | 97.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 19c | 94.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 80c | 90.71$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed No | 77c | 69.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 21c | 68.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 17c | 65.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c0…22b4backed Yes | 17c | 64.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 22c | 60.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 28c | 57.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 21c | 53.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 77c | 52.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…deefbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 23c | 46.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 79c | 36.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 23.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 79c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd923…3ae7backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.