Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37583498b8ebd56d3a0e6b019aea625f5c811cdc7224480f54369a4256380527
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 0c | 18,055$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 45c | 762.6$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.39 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 69c | 693.29$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.83 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 50c | 666.32$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.75 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 539.2$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 464.75$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 56c | 400$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 364.29$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 293.38$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 288.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 9c | 277$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 35c | 255.13$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed No | 8c | 252.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 57c | 251.86$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.57 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 9c | 243.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb931…09e0backed No | 49c | 241.44$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 67c | 239.34$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.87 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 236.73$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 66c | 218.47$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.72 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 30c | 205$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.92 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 76c | 201.2$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.09 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 199.94$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 52c | 194.35$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 53c | 191.82$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.2 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 38c | 189.52$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.32 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 29c | 170.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 162.18$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.6 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 161.97$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 50c | 160.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.43 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 155$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 26c | 154.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.57 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 154.61$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.67 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 47c | 152.65$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 68c | 146$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 13c | 143$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 43c | 140.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 53c | 140$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 138.35$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 127.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 63c | 125.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…43aabacked Yes | 41c | 123.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.21 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 66c | 121.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 121.66$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 46c | 116.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 110.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 42c | 109.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 37c | 106.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 53c | 106$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 47c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 54c | 101.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 34c | 100.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…bf1abacked Yes | 49c | 100.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b8…cccfbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379f…7d70backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 66c | 98.32$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 24c | 97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 66c | 95.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 50c | 91.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 49c | 84.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 53c | 82.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes | 61c | 82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 22c | 81.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 36c | 81.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 32c | 79.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 20c | 66.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 53c | 64.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 71c | 64.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 42c | 63.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 52c | 60.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0528…99dabacked No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 33c | 56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 69c | 53.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…e8c7backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x291e…c0e2backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…11f4backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d08…9232backed Yes | 59c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b6…e2aebacked No | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 49.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…6b2dbacked Yes | 50c | 49.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 49.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 48c | 47.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 33c | 45.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 58c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 74c | 43.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 26c | 42.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 34c | 40.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 38.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.