Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2697f2ddf6a9fe618ffe89d39b6eea6223a0e421a9a390e9938e585dc3c994e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,520$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.27 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddc…b4f0backed Yes | 2c | 1,045$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 27c | 856.9$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.33 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…c33fbacked Yes | 18c | 728$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 5c | 702.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 5c | 499.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…bc60backed Yes | 16c | 334.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 314.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5a…d32abacked No | 66c | 241.02$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.95 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 30c | 231.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 15c | 218.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 192.34$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 9c | 189.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 16c | 171.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 157$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 34c | 146.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 141.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 26c | 140.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 131.28$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 29c | 126.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 16c | 122.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 28c | 121.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48e8…c991backed Yes | 28c | 106.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed Yes | 14c | 103.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 28c | 92.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92fe…f901backed Yes | 22c | 90.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 84.46$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked Yes | 15c | 84.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x506b…b0febacked Yes | 23c | 81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 29c | 71.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 80c | 70.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 69.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 69.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 77c | 55.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 70c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…9be9backed Yes | 29c | 51.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe57c…b99bbacked Yes | 24c | 42.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +170.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 41.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae37…90f2backed Yes | 26c | 38.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 74c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 27.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…8fabbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 70c | 16.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.