Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb91b4ff60fb5937367d8d55cbc3a5ca95813b3da8a2df094cbf6ba69c1c076ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,060$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.54 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 9c | 285$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 236.97$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd3…4a99backed Yes | 44c | 228.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 194$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 184.8$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 39c | 183.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 69c | 169.21$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 154.38$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 19c | 132.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 112$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 11c | 109.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 107$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 20c | 101.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 70c | 94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 72c | 75.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 54c | 70.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 69.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed Yes | 31c | 63.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 70c | 59.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 57.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 65c | 57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8505…6240backed Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 63c | 52.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 71c | 52.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 51.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…cdc4backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 48c | 48.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 79c | 44.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…6083backed No | 70c | 43.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 66c | 43.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…7765backed Yes | 47c | 42.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 40.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a03…8feabacked Yes | 26c | 40.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 39.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdd…bd31backed No | 77c | 34.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 32c | 33.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…ba19backed No | 49c | 32.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 66c | 32.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 60c | 30.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 50c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 54c | 19.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 63c | 17.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 57c | 17.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.