Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05995dc22e8891bab05b9fd7a123d9a8c1101c52da69cf01fc3cfdfb7b816b62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 63c | 1,591$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.27 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 614.85$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.68 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…bfabbacked Yes | 76c | 486.56$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.5 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 67cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd3…4a99backed Yes | 48c | 418.65$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 370.38$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98c…8f64backed No | 62c | 321.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 63c | 291.27$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.5 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 38c | 215.83$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e5…3d01backed No | 63c | 199.95$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 14c | 188$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 17c | 171.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 156$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…2004backed Yes | 79c | 150.8$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 149.62$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 53c | 144.74$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.72 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 61c | 132.4$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.88 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 30c | 131.61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 77c | 129.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 15c | 126.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 11c | 125.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.4 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 49c | 123.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…7c8fbacked Yes | 79c | 105.28$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 73c | 97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 61c | 94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 93$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 65c | 92.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 90$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 40c | 85.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff0b…7b8fbacked Yes | 79c | 78.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 46c | 75.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 15c | 73.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…d242backed Yes | 42c | 71.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 15c | 71.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 15c | 70.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 70.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…dcd2backed Yes | 78c | 66.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 66.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa1…f1e6backed Yes | 60c | 66.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 38c | 64.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 45c | 62.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 73c | 61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 61c | 59.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b81…cdc0backed Yes | 20c | 57.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46fc…8f78backed Yes | 67c | 53.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 28c | 53.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…cdc4backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 45.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 24c | 44.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 63c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 44c | 39.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c52…0a0fbacked Yes | 76c | 39.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0193…e276backed Yes | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 35c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 36c | 32.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 32.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 50c | 31.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 43c | 25.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…6083backed No | 61c | 25.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…dd19backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 60c | 22.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 60c | 21.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 61c | 21.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4f…c55cbacked Yes | 80c | 20.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.