Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3de1707f34c3afb1e2be9577df649a66877f81b1a2df733115ddd3161ada4b3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 13,676$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.84 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 4c | 5,430$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.53 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 2c | 5,062$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…1b35backed Yes | 1c | 4,486$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 6c | 4,230$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.86 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…b752backed Yes | 1c | 1,750$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 1,329$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c52…0a0fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,193$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 2c | 876.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 4c | 727.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 613.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 3c | 582.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b81…cdc0backed Yes | 5c | 510.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 8c | 381.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 8c | 352.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 5c | 337.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…a5cbbacked Yes | 5c | 296.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 10c | 277.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 13c | 268.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 262.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd3…4a99backed Yes | 8c | 244.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 13c | 239.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 7c | 234.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 7c | 221.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 5c | 201.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 6c | 196.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 173.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…8fabbacked Yes | 12c | 137$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 13c | 119.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 15c | 65.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 53.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.