Tweets · resolved market
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35ade3cdbbc887a6237b65313bf1cd618e169979ff5ddc18f918ce56e60283b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fc3…c9e7backed No | 52c | 7,032$3,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,375.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc55…dd71backed Yes | 48c | 7,032$3,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,375.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 30c | 304.82$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 41c | 145.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 70c | 72.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 49c | 55.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…e651backed Yes | 52c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed Yes | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…7a12backed No | 75c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…bc60backed Yes | 36c | 35.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 41c | 32.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…10dabacked No | 77c | 30.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 60c | 22.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…da97backed Yes | 65c | 20.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 341 | 27.3%93 W · 248 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?this page
- Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will CZ post 120-139 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
- Will CZ post 180-199 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.