NBA · resolved market
Will Orlando Magic advance in the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2904d5def4e5222090123039779485b08b18c22a1fcf2004d8265d53a88423fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed Yes | 64c | 2,932$1,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.77 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…f082backed No | 34c | 2,801$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.09 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 66c | 1,259$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.34 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Yes | 70c | 911.86$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.56 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…5c8bbacked Yes | 65c | 817.66$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed No | 55c | 782.65$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.95 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 42c | 695.44$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.76 | 394 | 35.3%139 W · 255 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Yes | 49c | 397.72$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.09 | 259 | 44%114 W · 145 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 217.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5e…ff63backed Yes | 62c | 200$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf809…b391backed No | 54c | 137.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.78 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8900…f01dbacked No | 30c | 77.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 260 | 48.1%125 W · 135 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 69c | 39.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a5…4531backed No | 32c | 38.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 72c | 30.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…c546backed No | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -47%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 62c | 26.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 142 | 64.8%92 W · 50 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 70c | 19.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 533 | 49.3%263 W · 270 L | -28.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Orlando Magic advance in the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament?this page
- Will Charlotte Hornets advance in the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament?No won
- Will Golden State Warriors advance in the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament?No won
- Will Los Angeles Clippers advance in the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament?No won
- Will Philadelphia 76ers advance in the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament?Yes won
- Will Phoenix Suns advance in the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.