NBA · resolved market
Will Golden State Warriors advance in the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a19617b5afb711a457e26b6fbfa30addcb6aee5268c229fea0e7e3d6308dd7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked No | 52c | 1,603$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.93 | 293 | 46.4%136 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 28c | 1,547$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.57 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3988…7ae9backed Yes | 15c | 1,004$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 16c | 600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 58c | 575.95$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.46 | 394 | 35.3%139 W · 255 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc29…f1bbbacked Yes | 16c | 462.16$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +315.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 57c | 317.52$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.21 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 43c | 308.06$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.98 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 11c | 306.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 10c | 236.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…d030backed Yes | 48c | 202.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 54c | 185.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 285 | 37.9%108 W · 177 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…8dd7backed Yes | 29c | 130.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 24c | 124.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 182 | 46.7%85 W · 97 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeea5…0e33backed Yes | 48c | 114.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…a657backed Yes | 43c | 112.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb930…7512backed Yes | 17c | 109.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 103$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2225…bee7backed No | 78c | 79.17$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 40.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x405b…755cbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 58c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Golden State Warriors advance in the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament?this page
- Will Charlotte Hornets advance in the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament?No won
- Will Los Angeles Clippers advance in the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament?No won
- Will Orlando Magic advance in the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament?Yes won
- Will Philadelphia 76ers advance in the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament?Yes won
- Will Phoenix Suns advance in the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.