Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda9b4023aed736eff54eb3f1bb47b1ee78c6911e47d4a8e6f3e6d5fd8f9248fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $293,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $276,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $293,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 418 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x713b…c916backed Yes | 0c | 19,335$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 2c | 13,837$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.09 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,467$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes | 52c | 6,232$3,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,257.5 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 57c | 5,464$3,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,087.23 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 4,109$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…29aabacked Yes | 0c | 3,521$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 18c | 3,485$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.13 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b2…eafbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,665$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5728…d2b2backed Yes | 18c | 2,438$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.54 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c4b7backed Yes | 6c | 2,253$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.75 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +233%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 69c | 2,216$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.95 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…a796backed Yes | 61c | 1,927$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.06 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 1,911$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked Yes | 3c | 1,704$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 42 | 83.3%35 W · 7 L | +11.6wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,508$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 41c | 1,482$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.27 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 9c | 1,403$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.92 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 20c | 1,311$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.89 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…55c4backed Yes | 47c | 1,234$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.28 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…31a3backed Yes | 52c | 1,230$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.53 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd391…093fbacked No | 80c | 1,100$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 12c | 1,092$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 214 | 29.4%63 W · 151 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6618…6881backed No | 77c | 1,079$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.91 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 25c | 1,050$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.91 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 47c | 1,042$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.13 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed Yes | 69c | 1,035$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.52 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 1,000$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 79c | 960.92$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.33 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa656…fc5ebacked Yes | 31c | 949.95$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 71c | 887.31$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.97 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 31c | 833.37$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.94 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 18c | 818.18$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.85 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 26c | 781.36$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.94 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…17acbacked Yes | 63c | 768.03$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.34 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…4636backed Yes | 29c | 762.89$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0038…ad0dbacked No | 40c | 688.7$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.1 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 34c | 685.08$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.51 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 47c | 678.61$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.61 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 32c | 677.13$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 34c | 641.66$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.82 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 28c | 613.01$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.55 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 605.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 4c | 600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…0b65backed No | 35c | 599.93$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.44 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 9c | 594.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 23c | 575.96$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.95 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6f…e9fabacked Yes | 80c | 534.17$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.43 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.32 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa061…2c51backed No | 28c | 521.92$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.78 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 40c | 514.54$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.78 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 23c | 500.09$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…9d0abacked Yes | 76c | 497.91$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 58c | 497.68$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.82 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…3554backed Yes | 2c | 490.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…9ccfbacked Yes | 66c | 488.21$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed Yes | 13c | 474.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…5271backed No | 43c | 465.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.11 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 45c | 447.99$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.4 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 39c | 440.63$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.81 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 19c | 425.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.46 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…659dbacked No | 27c | 421.12$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.09 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9047…2959backed No | 65c | 414.58$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.25 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…a124backed Yes | 72c | 399.94$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +108%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Yes | 64c | 397.61$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.92 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 61c | 386.28$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.27 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 41c | 378.41$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.82 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 18c | 378.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.21 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 353.9$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 47c | 349.59$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.95 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked No | 58c | 349.58$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 65c | 339.8$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.27 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 67c | 333.47$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.7 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aab…773bbacked Yes | 73c | 330.23$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.07 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed No | 68c | 308.11$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked Yes | 7c | 306.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 33c | 303.4$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed No | 55c | 302.63$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.03 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.1 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…2bcabacked Yes | 36c | 299.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed No | 33c | 294.92$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.6 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 58c | 281.76$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.46 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…c0c1backed Yes | 10c | 279.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b48…9072backed Yes | 38c | 277.81$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8d…ba65backed Yes | 49c | 273.49$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 29c | 271.74$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.94 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745d…e109backed Yes | 73c | 267.6$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 18c | 267.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.68 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 14c | 260.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked No | 41c | 246.4$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed No | 21c | 246.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.02 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9f…efe7backed No | 53c | 241.3$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 31c | 236.28$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.69 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 30c | 225$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…6782backed Yes | 78c | 222.91$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.71 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a0…df3abacked Yes | 75c | 221.07$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes | 14c | 220.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…f96fbacked No | 15c | 215.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.12 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3a…0d98backed Yes | 71c | 213.5$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.