Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06587611533b2de810403e1727e0650e21af1cba4f4c19f8447adad560134c9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64ad…9e98backed Yes | 1c | 2,959$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 2c | 2,744$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 3c | 2,177$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.33 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbef5…6475backed Yes | 3c | 1,675$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 4c | 1,226$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 7c | 1,008$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…a2b8backed Yes | 2c | 844$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 8c | 796.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 9c | 771.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 3c | 700.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 2c | 700$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 2c | 681.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 7c | 645.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 7c | 623.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 3c | 614.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 13c | 527.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 4c | 523.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe3…dbdbbacked Yes | 9c | 458.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -82%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f0…62f7backed Yes | 10c | 406.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed Yes | 3c | 396.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 8c | 392.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…308bbacked Yes | 10c | 382.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 4c | 320$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 6c | 295.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9e…7883backed Yes | 6c | 263.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 9c | 248.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba5…8434backed Yes | 7c | 242.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked Yes | 7c | 210.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c76…a144backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 184.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 13c | 171.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 8c | 159.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 8c | 142.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 13c | 137.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…1815backed Yes | 9c | 117.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…12b4backed Yes | 13c | 91.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 13c | 79.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.