TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$182,050
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$199,528

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,050 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xad1e…ccacbacked No1c8,215$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.674283.3%35 W · 7 L+11.6wins+0.28per pick56cpaid+61.4%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xc4c3…2e3fbacked No57c6,848$3,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,927.494621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-31.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes75c5,702$4,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,397.1334651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes54c5,651$3,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,615.636648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes53c3,992$2,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,870.485,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No9c2,486$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.6671823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa739…e31abacked No19c2,408$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.74953.1%26 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No30c2,169$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.2763656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed Yes80c2,152$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.2637533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes48c1,921$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.9519338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes39c1,816$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.725362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No31c1,379$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.0312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes31c1,373$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.193622.2%8 W · 28 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes21c1,339$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.296610.6%7 W · 59 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-66.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5923…9e92backed No51c1,157$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.71742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49090040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No9c780.05$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7086420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes50c695.24$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.782,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes34c690.07$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.3230428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x88b6…7a17backed Yes68c672.85$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.915565.5%36 W · 19 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa79a…4883backed Yes27c643.4$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.657534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb3b…a2b6backed No2c637.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No7c535$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.456219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadb4…e282backed Yes23c516.21$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.89728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x216e…fda6backed Yes51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2457118.3%13 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33c9…3554backed Yes29c474.16$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.753836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes27c460.18$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.3125742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes31c457.93$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.3121429.4%63 W · 151 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes73c453.74$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.422128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb30…0e23backed No8c450.87$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.38119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-86.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes18c435.7$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.9417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cc0…1912backed No20c432.21$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0416116.1%26 W · 135 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No61c423.19$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.714,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5617…8c67backed No8c398.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.347518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No14c396.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7731050.3%156 W · 154 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes44c382.93$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.0318668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4c75…4636backed Yes32c352.22$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.17728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6aa…55edbacked Yes24c344.66$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.613030%9 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No58c336.65$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.9486173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb990…c4b7backed Yes19c331.38$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.144658.7%27 W · 19 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+233%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes61c327.89$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.522,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed No59c306.17$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.619148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes22c299.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.9923035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes15c281.43$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.0934918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Yes32c264.7$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.8711122.5%25 W · 86 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5647…12bfbacked Yes12c263.66$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+744.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes12c249.19$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.6556721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes66c248.68$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.657044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed No26c236$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1226327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x27a2…4240backed Yes20c227.74$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.731723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-38.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c227$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.392,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed Yes14c225$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.7516724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1c9…6872backed Yes68c220.19$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.482857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No39c218$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5752155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No28c205.21$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.127,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked No9c203.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2418530.3%56 W · 129 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10a4…2895backed Yes16c194.22$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.923250%16 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-9.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No34c190.83$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes23c184.55$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.534,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa081…e7a0backed No11c173.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4738961.7%240 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef6a…18e8backed No76c171.45$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.367360.3%44 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36f1…847fbacked Yes42c169.79$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.825139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes60c167.5$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.411,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes20c166.03$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.6452935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes18c162.31$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.522,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4639…78b8backed Yes14c155$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.922944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+43.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…ae14backed Yes25c150.86$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.499943.4%43 W · 56 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes39c150.51$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9232548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf64a…db74backed Yes58c147.6$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.1433349.8%166 W · 167 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes14c147.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.1615923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2250…4cd7backed Yes56c136.6$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.111950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a33…308bbacked Yes25c135.88$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.832934.5%10 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes37c135.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.4624238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc06…0db6backed Yes19c135.17$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.25933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab5…f7d8backed No14c131.72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.37767.9%6 W · 70 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-61.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes28c127.83$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.1549547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe508…5885backed Yes44c126.38$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.787939.2%31 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01e5…63d3backed Yes79c125.2$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.952045%9 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-31.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6f1…710bbacked Yes65c121.73$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.163956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes56c120.42$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.988252.4%43 W · 39 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba96…95a7backed Yes23c120.32$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.6324029.2%70 W · 170 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd27c…316dbacked Yes24c114.74$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f6…ae14backed Yes14c112.69$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4611663.8%74 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93b3…dc40backed No31c112.45$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.864245.2%19 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc9…17acbacked Yes25c109.07$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.331931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7d7…1a16backed Yes42c108.19$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.993759.5%22 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xced6…3f6dbacked No23c107.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257912.7%10 W · 69 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-72.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5fc…c993backed No15c107.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbd9…ad53backed Yes71c104.7$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.96376.2%48 W · 15 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+16.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f0d…2359backed No11c103.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3590%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes23c102.15$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.6694919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes38c100.32$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.275635.7%20 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes64c100.14$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.251,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7216335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6630813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes15c100$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856317.5%11 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9714…3014backed Yes16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+56.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7270133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd30…4dadbacked Yes17c99.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.994852.1%25 W · 23 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa566…111ebacked Yes34c99.56$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.47742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.