TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in March 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$211,096
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$211,702

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $211,096 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed No76c30,088$22,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,152.9126237%97 W · 165 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes14c21,488$3,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,009.71425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-28.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44cf…2211backed Yes18c17,633$3,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,260616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No65c16,974$11,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,899.394148.8%20 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3d4…9969backed No53c12,076$6,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,676.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+65.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1755…5aacbacked Yes33c11,972$3,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,990.381,32546.9%622 W · 703 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8974…bedebacked No68c7,535$5,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4034100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+200.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x70a9…6a74backed No76c6,683$5,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.14366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes27c6,296$1,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,681.961915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-62.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x498c…e138backed Yes54c5,305$2,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,864.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes30c5,266$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.861,77549%869 W · 906 L+141.4wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+17.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes27c5,040$1,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,344.542718.5%5 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick19cpaid-33.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42bc…6f2ebacked Yes64c4,505$2,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,883.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cbd…e7d7backed Yes64c4,400$2,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,81610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe617…f251backed No71c4,200$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.37366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69b9…1284backed No78c3,852$2,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.97666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeadf…26efbacked No43c3,313$1,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,900.58683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick47cpaid+125.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked No76c3,235$2,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4787…0dbebacked Yes46c2,670$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,217.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b49…ab21backed Yes21c2,092$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5d…17adbacked Yes38c1,973$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7501450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…8748backed Yes24c1,903$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22dc…a7e8backed Yes33c1,801$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.82333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-45.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28b9…a995backed No50c1,589$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d97…d127backed Yes24c1,510$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes15c1,447$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.874168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes37c1,422$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30d9…7c7bbacked Yes33c1,203$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.51250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes35c1,109$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.051233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed No48c1,044$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.63450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…05eabacked Yes27c740.74$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x571f…0393backed No75c720$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…bef0backed No71c716.92$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.3771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes37c653.96$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8592…c329backed Yes27c628.18$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe1d…a7dabacked Yes32c624.34$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick35cpaid-75.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc230…7971backed Yes50c595.51$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5351…c7edbacked No73c595.2$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.87757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9afc…0b6fbacked Yes18c592$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.26616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-60.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes12c569.21$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3116949.1%83 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes22c495$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.513815.9%22 W · 116 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+33.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No44c456.25$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.432100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+142.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd25f…b448backed Yes57c450.97$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x353e…9db2backed Yes25c440.05$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.21850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3058…6785backed Yes35c431$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-48.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes24c426.89$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.94812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa29d…6d1ebacked Yes24c419.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x644b…ec38backed Yes25c408.87$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dc7…0936backed No43c408.13$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.16425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3f…682fbacked Yes63c400$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.7920%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2eef…b716backed Yes27c381.32$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x294e…b019backed Yes27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No59c360.63$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.4919934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes35c351$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.296631.8%21 W · 45 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92f5…e2d7backed Yes41c344.82$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.251560%9 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes30c327.53$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3927429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd292…b066backed No71c298.84$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.562576%19 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba99…039abacked Yes15c291.48$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd227…dc03backed Yes29c288.91$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8340%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c79…1d00backed No77c277.89$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.84560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1395…b329backed Yes48c274.83$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.93425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-64.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes27c251.29$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.171,4438.8%127 W · 1,316 L-53.1wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes25c251.04$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.152020%4 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes52c240$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.81353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba38…f74dbacked Yes13c230$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Yes48c229.19$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.023336.4%12 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x634a…07b2backed Yes34c220.62$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed No71c220$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-28.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes19c215$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.622737%10 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…2c28backed No78c207.31$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d27…676ebacked No75c200.71$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.661136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+124.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd706…fac2backed No73c199.72$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.84862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6745…b791backed Yes26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98c1…3d1ebacked No77c191.7$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b24…2440backed Yes55c181.28$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0554…9550backed No56c173.58$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9346…df81backed Yes44c168.98$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.06450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdac5…ae24backed Yes33c160$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.81030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-34.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5226…8554backed No68c159.37$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.681546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9f2…b4ebbacked No74c158.82$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.64933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-50.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f1b…6ef9backed Yes28c157.53$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.441758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6277…0327backed No58c151.54$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8328…fe31backed No73c150.68$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes30c148.26$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.293737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked No75c145$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6512360.2%74 W · 49 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+9.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b4a…3421backed No36c141$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+176.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes10c138.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9521…9e2bbacked No44c136.35$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfde…4006backed No63c129.99$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb3b…fb85backed No80c126.2$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.24666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d82…c242backed No28c126$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a67…af26backed No80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251376.9%10 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick72cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68b…385fbacked Yes25c125$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+27.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1029…9b36backed Yes19c124.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.958623.3%20 W · 66 L-8.8wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-37.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3096…58a3backed Yes21c122.08$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+32.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c30…7673backed Yes53c120$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.62466.7%16 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes9c120$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2637.9%5 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9da…5f42backed No50c119.61$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9863…9676backed No28c118$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.