Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5f44b398d43f023ee4a367314ccc3190755b7fecd48ae82f7558d109732f6d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $169,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,840 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe3b…374cbacked No | 0c | 106,000$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf880…d779backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 7,348$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…1284backed No | 50c | 5,650$2,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,812.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…8722backed Yes | 50c | 4,000$1,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,002.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 39c | 2,210$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.2 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed No | 26c | 1,051$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.56 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed No | 60c | 1,019$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…07b2backed Yes | 62c | 565.33$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed Yes | 47c | 485.68$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…c455backed No | 61c | 400.49$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.44 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…5e9dbacked Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…571cbacked No | 42c | 392.67$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…b7f8backed No | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 45cpaid | +146.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0579…1993backed Yes | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…962ebacked No | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 56c | 283.79$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.94 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 270.83$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…faafbacked No | 32c | 239.62$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f93…2c07backed No | 43c | 233.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 51c | 220$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 215.8$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 47c | 197$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +90%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…df81backed Yes | 79c | 167.64$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…865bbacked Yes | 52c | 165.1$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa10…8f6bbacked No | 57c | 150$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 16c | 145.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6801…7030backed Yes | 49c | 133.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 58c | 133.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…3647backed No | 43c | 132.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 39c | 130$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x546e…2266backed Yes | 62c | 130$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…bef0backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710f…09a6backed No | 22c | 98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…676ebacked No | 53c | 96.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 44c | 95.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked No | 22c | 90.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…6065backed Yes | 60c | 82.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 41c | 82.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 62c | 80.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 25c | 80.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 47c | 79.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 49c | 70.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6253…fe57backed No | 57c | 69.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 48c | 65.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d28…985dbacked Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 63c | 62.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de4…96ffbacked Yes | 58c | 59.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…e4f5backed Yes | 38c | 47.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…af19backed No | 64c | 47.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d7…7c97backed Yes | 68c | 44.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68d…810cbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 35c | 39.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 164 | 26.8%44 W · 120 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 52c | 37.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 45c | 36.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5344…7dc1backed Yes | 62c | 36.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741b…3cbfbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 44c | 35.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +137.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x087c…72cdbacked Yes | 46c | 32.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe60f…f4b4backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…a1e2backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd706…fac2backed Yes | 78c | 27.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cd…6094backed No | 51c | 25.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5d…bf4dbacked Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d0…988dbacked No | 73c | 24.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 65c | 23.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee5…4d0fbacked No | 48c | 22.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eec…600bbacked No | 54c | 21.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c47…e9bebacked Yes | 59c | 18.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x625c…c3cfbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in March 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,000 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,800 (HIGH) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,500 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.