Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc47785deeb9697117ba734613856220b4905df4d4d71ff42048bf973d4a9af5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 38c | 3,138$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.99 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…0b6fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,804$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,165$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 1,724$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 60c | 1,541$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.52 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,210$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 16c | 917.06$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.65 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f9…e61dbacked No | 65c | 600$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…4e23backed No | 70c | 562.76$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 66c | 548.67$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.93 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 3c | 422.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 63 | 7.9%5 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 49c | 352$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.96 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f50…8341backed No | 76c | 349.99$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked No | 66c | 349$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.85 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 59c | 318.85$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.87 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 27c | 243.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 25c | 210.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…5462backed No | 78c | 208.53$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…1d13backed No | 56c | 199.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +4.9wins | +0.33per pick | 60cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Yes | 71c | 176.06$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…6771backed No | 59c | 168.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +78%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 150.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 10c | 148.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81d9…60f1backed No | 73c | 136.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…b37cbacked No | 59c | 126.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ee…b6d0backed No | 61c | 124.73$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…006cbacked No | 74c | 112.67$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecee…35c3backed Yes | 19c | 108$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 105$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed Yes | 34c | 102.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 89.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Yes | 39c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +66%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 46c | 52.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 53c | 46.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 32c | 40.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked No | 76c | 38.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 42c | 34.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b13…0440backed Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 57c | 32.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc61c…83a9backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 60c | 23.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 77c | 21.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…d6c0backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0545…dcdcbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in March 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,000 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,800 (HIGH) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,500 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.