Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5d9e0d76d7978c1ff851a686a639be47af126ea75f24ce1790fd2008375d69d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44cf…2211backed Yes | 5c | 6,031$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…bdf8backed Yes | 4c | 3,691$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,581$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.2 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,482$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.48 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 18c | 2,390$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd227…dc03backed Yes | 7c | 2,251$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 19c | 1,531$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 15c | 1,052$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.53 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…8722backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 6c | 712.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 63 | 7.9%5 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 619.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 615.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde47…4e7fbacked Yes | 20c | 590.72$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed Yes | 12c | 540$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9672…c2bdbacked Yes | 15c | 509.49$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 495.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc7…0936backed Yes | 4c | 427.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc062…cc13backed Yes | 18c | 400$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe0…b492backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb199…c8a3backed Yes | 11c | 400$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f52…2c64backed Yes | 4c | 380.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 365.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 6c | 363.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…1ef5backed Yes | 15c | 333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 11c | 307.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…a7dabacked Yes | 17c | 297.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…a337backed Yes | 12c | 257.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…7d20backed Yes | 10c | 251.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…7971backed Yes | 19c | 238.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…7ec0backed Yes | 24c | 219.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf37f…9c30backed Yes | 19c | 209.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 8c | 145$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 15c | 144.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x184c…1c26backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed No | 74c | 86.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 19c | 83.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 16c | 75.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed Yes | 21c | 52.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…d411backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b7…3e71backed No | 69c | 16.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in March 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,000 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,800 (HIGH) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,500 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.