Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf8743e640b4efad25b7edbce8b8565070f5f43a2983d490fd2c3a8e025c7402
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,590 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 38c | 2,503$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.85 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ec…1b5ebacked No | 13c | 1,245$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…a912backed Yes | 50c | 961.77$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…5e9dbacked Yes | 76c | 885.31$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.89 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…07b2backed Yes | 78c | 686.1$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 543.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 62c | 520.4$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.54 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0579…1993backed Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed Yes | 62c | 360$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1b…6ef9backed No | 38c | 344.33$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.88 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…faafbacked No | 28c | 316.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 12c | 301.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 63c | 262.45$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.49 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 66c | 259.6$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…bedebacked Yes | 71c | 247$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +200.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…d3ddbacked No | 42c | 236.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 12c | 196.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…b594backed Yes | 70c | 186.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…b676backed No | 11c | 182.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 8c | 141.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 17c | 128.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Yes | 78c | 128.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 34c | 123.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a9…c455backed No | 47c | 116.2$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 58c | 110$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…e4f5backed Yes | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 21c | 101.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b5…80eebacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 38cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…72bcbacked No | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 41c | 87.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…74c6backed No | 31c | 73.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…bd6cbacked No | 17c | 60.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…d411backed No | 51c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…6f6bbacked No | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 80c | 55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…40f6backed Yes | 62c | 54.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…3647backed No | 33c | 52.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…9f2dbacked No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1692…1644backed No | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f93…2c07backed No | 24c | 42.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 41c | 35.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 55c | 32.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +137.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x741b…3cbfbacked Yes | 68c | 29.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 72c | 26.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 68c | 25.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0931…dfc8backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 59c | 23.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 63c | 22.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…a1e2backed Yes | 68c | 22.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x087c…72cdbacked Yes | 59c | 19.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…209dbacked Yes | 80c | 17.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in March 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,000 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,800 (HIGH) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,500 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.