Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba61b4a240d424f473d8093ae30353d12f4b35435f178d263222b72b7a731ab3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed No | 60c | 17,711$10,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,707.61 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 45c | 11,139$5,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,094.7 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 35c | 7,000$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,559.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 40c | 4,322$1,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,602.71 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0d…fbb3backed No | 66c | 3,907$2,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,570.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 32c | 1,801$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.37 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…1284backed No | 51c | 1,694$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 44c | 1,665$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.79 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44cf…2211backed Yes | 47c | 1,012$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…4b25backed No | 58c | 1,005$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22dc…a7e8backed Yes | 61c | 808$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 2c | 636.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d9…7c7bbacked Yes | 40c | 600$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…a7dabacked Yes | 50c | 598.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 580$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41d7…7c97backed Yes | 38c | 526.71$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.81 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +90%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a93…ed13backed No | 72c | 485.65$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8592…c329backed Yes | 48c | 396.57$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6a74backed No | 72c | 389.56$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x010b…81dcbacked No | 50c | 374.9$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed No | 5c | 280.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 63 | 7.9%5 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…b4ebbacked No | 63c | 267.51$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8a…99acbacked Yes | 40c | 257.5$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +148.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked No | 46c | 237.81$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.58 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…07b2backed Yes | 47c | 234.6$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 32c | 224.95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.95 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…0b6fbacked Yes | 42c | 224.87$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…dd60backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e87…2797backed No | 46c | 218.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…e2d7backed Yes | 38c | 210.22$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.89 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…b066backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed No | 71c | 187.49$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde47…4e7fbacked Yes | 52c | 184.7$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…fb85backed No | 74c | 180.48$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…309cbacked Yes | 55c | 177.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 36c | 154.46$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 19cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 18c | 150.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…faafbacked No | 55c | 150.53$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…7637backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 77c | 141$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.02 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec29…d5c1backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 29c | 140.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba04…4edfbacked No | 66c | 134.43$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1b…6ef9backed Yes | 47c | 117.95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 32c | 117.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.36per pick | 27cpaid | +259.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…40f6backed Yes | 41c | 111.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed Yes | 59c | 110.63$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…e4f5backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…aa5dbacked No | 67c | 101.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd706…fac2backed No | 52c | 100.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 15c | 99.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 98.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 158 | 35.4%56 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x943f…de8bbacked No | 63c | 92.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98c1…3d1ebacked No | 74c | 90$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 40c | 88.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7eb…eb13backed Yes | 51c | 83.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 47c | 75.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…bbc8backed Yes | 28c | 72.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +261.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…bac3backed Yes | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 67c | 69.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed No | 75c | 66.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3058…6785backed Yes | 65c | 62.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e0…d772backed Yes | 51c | 60.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82a9…db57backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0945…c097backed Yes | 51c | 55.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 34c | 55.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 164 | 26.8%44 W · 120 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46ca…2d58backed Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a01…633cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 31c | 49.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +137.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 38c | 49.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6801…7030backed Yes | 37c | 48.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Yes | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…bef0backed No | 54c | 46.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 27c | 39.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +146.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…1b33backed Yes | 64c | 39.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…f6dabacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741b…3cbfbacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed No | 31c | 35.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…1292backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b7…9802backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72cc…b0c7backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d4…e7e7backed Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…b37cbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0981…5b7fbacked No | 53c | 29.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…9da6backed Yes | 63c | 27.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 53c | 25.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x771e…3ae3backed Yes | 54c | 24.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68d…810cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58fa…a474backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 60c | 19.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,000 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,800 (HIGH) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,500 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.