Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80918ed667684cf0c550df587f7853cea0608bc9979a3ec96964a596e5fa9d0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 17c | 6,386$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.4 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 13c | 6,078$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.91 | 1,325 | 46.9%622 W · 703 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44cf…2211backed Yes | 13c | 4,670$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd227…dc03backed Yes | 17c | 2,826$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,476$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeadf…26efbacked No | 73c | 1,926$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,603$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.05 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 23c | 1,325$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.74 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 17c | 939.67$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…9969backed No | 70c | 852.71$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 11c | 830.13$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.65 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc7…0936backed Yes | 17c | 515.32$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 11c | 377.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9a8abacked No | 77c | 353$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x469e…a2a2backed Yes | 31c | 321.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 12c | 299.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3058…6785backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…0dbebacked Yes | 11c | 272.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…0b6fbacked Yes | 8c | 263.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…a337backed Yes | 8c | 259.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd485…3b87backed No | 77c | 246.45$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…edc6backed Yes | 38c | 235$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…07b2backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x101e…06bdbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1395…b329backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…e3ccbacked Yes | 12c | 196$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 11c | 195.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…b066backed No | 73c | 176.14$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1695…324cbacked Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…a7dabacked Yes | 32c | 156.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 153.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c32…7f32backed Yes | 9c | 138.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 136.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe198…c000backed Yes | 11c | 123.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 10c | 113.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 63 | 7.9%5 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…7ec0backed Yes | 20c | 101.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…1fa8backed Yes | 11c | 94.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd706…fac2backed No | 78c | 90.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…c671backed No | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…563dbacked Yes | 29c | 79.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 17c | 70.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…64b7backed Yes | 40c | 68.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 17c | 68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf68d…810cbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 55.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…e6cebacked No | 73c | 54.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x353e…9db2backed Yes | 21c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5f…e5ccbacked Yes | 38c | 52.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…17b3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504d…dae8backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f52…2c64backed Yes | 36c | 47.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0116…fdf7backed Yes | 22c | 45.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x892b…02a9backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…5dc1backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb713…aed4backed No | 74c | 18.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7eb…eb13backed No | 80c | 18.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0093…be88backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 69c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in March 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,000 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,800 (HIGH) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,500 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.