Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (HIGH) in March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5da428d3ac0b0c110a58c5d591e41df7070dcc9634299eec88a1f9bdb71624d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,798$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.05 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x533b…8afdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,559$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…0b6fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,296$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,209$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed No | 69c | 1,000$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.46 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17da…31f3backed Yes | 6c | 600.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 4c | 585.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 63 | 7.9%5 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 13c | 577.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked Yes | 10c | 550$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 38cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…4e23backed No | 77c | 464.97$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0579…1993backed Yes | 25c | 399.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99b1…4ea2backed Yes | 24c | 271.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 25c | 265.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…12acbacked Yes | 5c | 260$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 241.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213c…92eebacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 11c | 199$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 187.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…5cbebacked Yes | 8c | 180$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 7c | 165.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +9.9wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +94%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfa10…8f6bbacked Yes | 48c | 134.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b8…a85dbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 55c | 92.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…1d13backed No | 70c | 87.19$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +4.9wins | +0.33per pick | 60cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed No | 69c | 86.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…c8fbbacked No | 73c | 80.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes | 14c | 77.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fa…a1ddbacked No | 75c | 72.27$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7d…3da0backed Yes | 21c | 66.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5d…214bbacked Yes | 29c | 62.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de4…96ffbacked No | 63c | 59.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0e…37d6backed Yes | 54c | 53.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1a…3ca8backed No | 75c | 46.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1692…1644backed No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b13…0440backed Yes | 47c | 42.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 38c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…d896backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0e…ff44backed No | 29c | 37.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +248.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…ceebbacked No | 41c | 33.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 63c | 30.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…b37cbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…5462backed No | 55c | 27.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68d…810cbacked No | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710f…09a6backed No | 53c | 26.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 68c | 16.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (HIGH) in March 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,000 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,800 (HIGH) in March 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,000 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,200 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,500 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.