TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$217,245
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$211,065

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,245 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2fad…f5c0backed Yes53c10,381$5,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,866.733661.1%22 W · 14 L+9.1wins+0.25per pick36cpaid+51.7%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No24c8,527$2,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,023.1164339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb4f2…e5fabacked No34c7,661$2,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,612.769051.1%46 W · 44 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+114.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes77c6,870$5,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,604.7338247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No1c5,850$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.652742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb01…ead3backed No4c5,411$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2103813.2%5 W · 33 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb82d…d531backed No1c5,125$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68d3…82e1backed Yes70c5,000$3,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,480.343551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No19c4,058$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.763912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-55.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf027…3f04backed No43c4,015$1,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,735.15749.1%28 W · 29 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf90…41f0backed Yes62c3,785$2,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.5615740.1%63 W · 94 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+87.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xab0b…4cd6backed No14c3,544$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-60.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No6c3,333$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.3432243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes78c3,253$2,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.5313250%66 W · 66 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed Yes71c2,811$2,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.868159.3%48 W · 33 L+11.9wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+27.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed No19c2,779$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.8222627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed No9c2,494$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.659335.5%33 W · 60 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+33.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No5c2,398$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.0642311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes57c2,093$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.6812744.9%57 W · 70 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+91.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5669…0f13backed No20c2,048$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.385341.5%22 W · 31 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8daf…8c4abacked No51c1,975$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+445.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked No12c1,941$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.75523.6%13 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes80c1,869$1,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.1433337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked No43c1,849$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8006251.6%32 W · 30 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf141…d9aabacked No22c1,828$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No15c1,828$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.848923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8982…af89backed No11c1,533$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.952825%7 W · 21 L-7.4wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No10c1,475$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.041039.7%10 W · 93 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a2…54c2backed No10c1,234$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.2710333%34 W · 69 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed No24c1,200$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28428438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No35c1,200$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.5515436.4%56 W · 98 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66d2…5fccbacked Yes48c1,190$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c1,176$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.995071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf469…ca36backed No15c1,047$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+75.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c1,042$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.941,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf6…2ecdbacked No7c1,041$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.613023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes80c1,039$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.316553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c15…944dbacked Yes80c1,039$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.191233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+812.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No43c1,026$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.5547334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97cb…c910backed No9c1,022$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.617030%21 W · 49 L+10.8wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+250.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xab7b…f350backed No31c1,022$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.197067.1%47 W · 23 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xdf75…29c6backed Yes57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4304355.8%24 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…65abbacked No12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204721.3%10 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked No22c979.15$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.3316739.5%66 W · 101 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x42f9…c7cdbacked Yes73c860.62$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.1560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+78.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36da…8218backed Yes50c833.87$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.939532.6%31 W · 64 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+57.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc1e…08f0backed Yes51c722.56$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.563458.8%20 W · 14 L+5.6wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+301.5%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xcdcf…144fbacked No1c714.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+73.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b62…5203backed Yes57c671$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2865731.6%18 W · 39 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes76c664.54$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.4940433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked No12c662.48$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8210528.6%30 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked No43c657$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.4816131.7%51 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9986…27aebacked No11c652.13$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7310141.6%42 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5bd…f03ebacked No15c650.58$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4512328.5%35 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes73c643.3$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.7621631.9%69 W · 147 L-0.7wins0.00per pick32cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No26c617.85$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.0167841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No21c612.43$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.0712441.1%51 W · 73 L-14.5wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes73c581.56$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.5822262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No24c555.97$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.7716648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f21…3bcebacked Yes65c541.53$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.672222.7%5 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+721.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x05be…78d0backed No33c517.39$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.079257.6%53 W · 39 L+7.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa461…878abacked Yes70c514$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.684938.8%19 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2494…9d11backed No9c508.35$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+50.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4540939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe829…2e6ebacked No45c466.67$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2081957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e5d…51ffbacked No3c461.54$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+247.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked No43c460.61$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20015338.6%59 W · 94 L-0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c3b…53f8backed No11c460$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503070%21 W · 9 L+7.0wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+52.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No7c457.41$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8612023.3%28 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+3.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0799…725cbacked Yes58c430.87$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.972532%8 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed Yes47c429.97$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.4810132.7%33 W · 68 L+10.6wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+37.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x68bf…459fbacked No43c426.65$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.463636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+174.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ed…8f34backed Yes47c426.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.192356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+67.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x20d9…5490backed Yes71c414.17$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.215851.7%30 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.15per pick37cpaid+47.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xceca…3f67backed No53c402.97$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.994348.8%21 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d0a…a3b9backed No27c400$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed No8c400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324131.7%13 W · 28 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa344…8141backed Yes58c400$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.111850%59 W · 59 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd054…7e38backed No48c399.97$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.997948.1%38 W · 41 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x20cb…e2b0backed No11c366.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406949.3%34 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x132d…b771backed No20c366.31$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2650%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No12c343.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8925843.4%112 W · 146 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b6d…5453backed No9c340.39$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.155139.2%20 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a30…b1e2backed No10c340$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3460%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccb3…2eadbacked No30c337.8$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10312544%55 W · 70 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed No48c333.78$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1608457.1%48 W · 36 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x896e…8902backed No9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x346e…3c06backed Yes55c331.01$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.81742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04f6…311abacked No8c312.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd096…2f6fbacked No16c310.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+38.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac76…9359backed Yes35c301.72$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.2626756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa072…9e34backed No38c299.99$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1142035%7 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed No43c299.99$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x595a…bca8backed No42c288.38$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.523860.5%23 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd4…e792backed No56c268.21$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501560%9 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes29c264.95$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.1249023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e66…1df1backed No8c258.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97a6…2190backed No40c252.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007544%33 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+48.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x55c0…6c7bbacked No15c251.12$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.751822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23fc…ef88backed No6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.