Us Politics · resolved market
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b7c0024f756966420f83ed9b97bf72b45b7be33f0b86293d0351709d822ced5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 63c | 3,910$2,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.02 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,589$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 26c | 2,531$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.74 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…dd7fbacked Yes | 36c | 1,799$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 37c | 1,503$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.5 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…a4e3backed No | 63c | 1,429$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 6c | 1,378$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…f3a3backed Yes | 32c | 1,127$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.27 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6459…c926backed Yes | 35c | 999.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3d…de6abacked No | 64c | 780.05$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 12c | 764.34$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.49 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 65c | 757$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.95 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 37c | 719.86$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.45 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…48babacked Yes | 18c | 683.16$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.95 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 15cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7794…8cc7backed Yes | 35c | 653.93$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 615$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 12c | 526.61$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 110 | 10%11 W · 99 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…067ebacked No | 79c | 515$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 504.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5400…1342backed Yes | 45c | 476.7$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…9d2dbacked Yes | 46c | 436.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 431.01$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.79 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 21c | 428.14$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.63 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 62c | 386.25$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.84 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a1…d613backed No | 66c | 372.85$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…a17cbacked No | 70c | 366.2$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c7…23d1backed No | 74c | 351.89$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 32c | 340.72$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.06 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef43…7b62backed Yes | 41c | 339.35$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.08 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 31c | 320.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a23…039dbacked Yes | 36c | 317.58$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…5e17backed Yes | 34c | 314.45$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.39 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 54c | 311.07$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.65 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 309.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…210abacked Yes | 6c | 284.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c6…a2fabacked Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…2341backed No | 64c | 271.9$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ea…4b13backed Yes | 19c | 250$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4747…492dbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51cb…b68ebacked Yes | 57c | 249.46$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b59…3469backed Yes | 11c | 231.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes | 7c | 219$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 9c | 213.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 12c | 204.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…ed9abacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed Yes | 31c | 199.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca3d…64bdbacked No | 64c | 198.85$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf45d…8fd0backed No | 63c | 196.31$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 176.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…dad4backed Yes | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 15c | 171.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 12c | 170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…6e71backed No | 79c | 156.58$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fe…f6e7backed No | 69c | 156.54$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…0401backed Yes | 40c | 150.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…9afcbacked No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…ce16backed No | 63c | 148.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 40c | 127.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 124.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…cf97backed Yes | 51c | 120.49$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fc…e0f1backed Yes | 34c | 117.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +113%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed No | 62c | 112.41$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6131…35c8backed Yes | 35c | 106.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 61c | 106$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…79a7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79e7…f41fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1299…d1cfbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 33c | 98.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1091…a259backed Yes | 28c | 93.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…f0bfbacked No | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…7f96backed Yes | 22c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…4d67backed Yes | 30c | 76.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 64c | 67.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…ba29backed Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a9…4ea4backed Yes | 27c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9e…70bcbacked Yes | 40c | 59.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 69c | 55.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…8c69backed Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf86…b082backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c34…aa57backed No | 63c | 47.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfc…089dbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…bd47backed No | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…3f94backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9e…78e8backed No | 46c | 43.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5983…e2c2backed Yes | 31c | 42.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64e…2df3backed Yes | 47c | 42.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8828…2954backed Yes | 38c | 39.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…939fbacked No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b3…24e2backed Yes | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…ee04backed No | 54c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0910…ce1cbacked Yes | 44c | 35.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf88f…989abacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a5…94b7backed No | 62c | 32.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9060…281dbacked No | 74c | 27.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5a…f00bbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by December 31?this page
- Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.