Us Politics · resolved market
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcba3e3759acd474e4871563c66d1c085dd4c3dc719cb472fc9c28e60c3bf6ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3877…4daabacked Yes | 14c | 2,997$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.53 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 70c | 2,050$1,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.58 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,730$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 1,669$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.44 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…5e17backed Yes | 5c | 1,433$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.63 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef43…7b62backed Yes | 31c | 1,344$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.31 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 79c | 1,236$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.43 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…9d2dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 29c | 650.58$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.67 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 29c | 638.99$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.48 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe618…084dbacked Yes | 33c | 612.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…f3a3backed Yes | 6c | 556.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…ed9abacked Yes | 17c | 550$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 28c | 438.64$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.13 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5a…a624backed Yes | 42c | 358.74$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed No | 63c | 317.81$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.08 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 304.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 300.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 299.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed No | 63c | 279.58$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.44 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed Yes | 17c | 277.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…b5c7backed Yes | 15c | 259.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa2…453ebacked Yes | 24c | 237.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 16c | 215.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fe…f6e7backed No | 74c | 180.86$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…fdb5backed Yes | 29c | 167.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ea…4b13backed Yes | 19c | 167.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 62c | 154.55$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…2befbacked No | 68c | 151.95$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked No | 63c | 119.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 25c | 107.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 29c | 104.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…9afcbacked No | 69c | 101.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…a19bbacked No | 63c | 79.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3baf…b46dbacked No | 71c | 74.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2b…143dbacked No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked Yes | 37c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 61.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8410…d4ecbacked No | 62c | 57.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 56c | 57.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x031b…babcbacked No | 65c | 55.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510d…d839backed Yes | 29c | 54.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1717backed Yes | 19c | 54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfc…089dbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7480…4a53backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 65c | 49.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 77c | 45.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdff…c9d0backed Yes | 39c | 41.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93f…8ebdbacked Yes | 38c | 39.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 75c | 35.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +8.4wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58c7…23d1backed No | 71c | 33.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 78c | 28.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…939fbacked No | 65c | 27.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…370abacked Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 71c | 25.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…ee04backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…8c69backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…4492backed No | 66c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d79…31dcbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by October 31?this page
- Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.