Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $3.30 in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50deffb4f28820287a986ecfdc9140be124ac1a1cd973ae181fb8ca6b888dc3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $175,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f51…531ebacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 8c | 16,809$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.56 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8871…830abacked Yes | 55c | 12,815$6,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,985.52 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 9c | 11,548$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.89 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 40c | 10,973$4,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,390.19 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bb…a429backed No | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,099.99 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…8405backed Yes | 0c | 7,998$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked No | 59c | 7,279$4,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,949.1 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 6,015$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 49c | 2,509$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.58 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 2,050$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 77c | 1,500$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,500$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,464$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,271$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 62c | 1,129$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf196…2709backed No | 64c | 896.88$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…7b02backed Yes | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…b013backed Yes | 3c | 682.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5c…7d29backed Yes | 13c | 499$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a30…b575backed Yes | 61c | 360.49$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 17c | 357.46$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x575a…17bcbacked Yes | 6c | 317.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x820f…bfdabacked Yes | 20c | 313.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 27c | 222.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -8.0wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…a704backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…f372backed Yes | 6c | 164.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…e2c6backed Yes | 18c | 153.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 93 | 3.2%3 W · 90 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5d…b392backed Yes | 21c | 61.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79e7…f41fbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 46c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed No | 65c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08d4…03dcbacked No | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $3.30 in October?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.20 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.40 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.50 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.60 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.70 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.80 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.10 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.50 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.80 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.50 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $6.00 in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.