Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $3.20 in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x014ace6bd337ec712afb7cb14bc5340ab5d326b2841c3426ff3a1eb8b31a9c58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $305,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $299,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $305,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 18c | 15,075$2,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,673.56 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked No | 53c | 12,441$6,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,884.94 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 19c | 11,990$2,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,328.19 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 10,275$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 9,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…531ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,585$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed No | 64c | 4,956$3,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,766.58 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8871…830abacked Yes | 67c | 4,862$3,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,281.52 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1f…57cabacked Yes | 7c | 4,581$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd311…82d5backed Yes | 7c | 4,286$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,198$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.66 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…6b0bbacked No | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,010 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 65c | 2,999$1,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.73 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 3c | 2,732$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…bf0fbacked Yes | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 73c | 1,758$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.41 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,517$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 24c | 1,287$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.15 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 29c | 1,172$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.41 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes | 6c | 1,018$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa7…01bdbacked No | 28c | 715$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…7b02backed Yes | 42c | 535.24$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.8 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 39c | 533.21$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.01 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5c…7d29backed Yes | 17c | 499$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 9c | 325.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68f3…776cbacked Yes | 6c | 310.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 22c | 271.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -8.0wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8a…085bbacked Yes | 9c | 169.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6a…6db6backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5d…b392backed Yes | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…1880backed No | 79c | 40.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340a…cfa2backed No | 55c | 38.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…b6debacked Yes | 54c | 37.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…ad28backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -4.6wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e9…8ba8backed Yes | 67c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in October?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.20 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.40 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.50 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.60 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.70 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.80 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.10 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.30 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.50 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.80 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.50 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $6.00 in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.