Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9408b43a48c0d1f3504123607462dc48a92066ce205ae10576ec0cef9e1cd5bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,238,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,056,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,238,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0fda…8405backed Yes | 0c | 159,610$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.93 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8c…67c6backed Yes | 0c | 65,128$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.13 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadc6…d5e0backed Yes | 0c | 45,020$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc13…3d29backed Yes | 5c | 29,232$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 27,854$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.67 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f4…e758backed Yes | 0c | 16,010$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6697…7d7dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,700$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…852bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,670$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7981…a258backed Yes | 0c | 15,630$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744d…31cabacked Yes | 0c | 15,593$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…e50abacked Yes | 0c | 15,546$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a5…1e79backed Yes | 0c | 15,511$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a7…5acabacked Yes | 0c | 15,476$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7406…cf2abacked Yes | 0c | 15,435$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf125…4d1dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,390$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e6…7d11backed Yes | 0c | 15,342$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…cc12backed Yes | 0c | 15,305$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x053f…f2b3backed Yes | 0c | 15,268$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561c…0c7cbacked Yes | 0c | 15,223$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe7…dc6fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,190$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa593…115cbacked Yes | 0c | 15,152$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9343…65a8backed Yes | 0c | 15,102$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…e9f6backed Yes | 0c | 15,060$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…a8c5backed Yes | 0c | 15,015$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57bd…c7d0backed Yes | 0c | 14,975$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd087…9e67backed Yes | 0c | 14,937$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…a9bfbacked Yes | 0c | 14,890$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…da7ebacked Yes | 1c | 12,899$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.9 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…622fbacked Yes | 1c | 11,803$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.95 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,953$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 0c | 7,560$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…93d1backed Yes | 1c | 6,181$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…4f07backed Yes | 2c | 5,330$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.66 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes | 1c | 4,436$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…8e82backed Yes | 1c | 3,891$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 49 | 2%1 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 1c | 3,680$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,633$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e1…7a0abacked Yes | 0c | 3,296$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…86efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,450$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb237…9e07backed Yes | 1c | 1,378$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505d…7d62backed Yes | 2c | 1,315$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…988bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdada…bbf3backed Yes | 2c | 717.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb08a…0cf0backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $6.00 in October?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.20 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.40 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.50 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.60 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.70 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.80 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.10 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.30 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.50 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.80 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.50 in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.