Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $3.50 in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfac77dcbbecc381998b45d96f8b114c4fe01ae8fdfac629c9e654fbd84dea705
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $505,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $865,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $505,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 5c | 12,284$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.3 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 4c | 10,597$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.28 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked No | 73c | 8,595$6,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,278.46 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8871…830abacked Yes | 37c | 8,143$3,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,007.39 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…8525backed Yes | 15c | 7,950$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 31c | 5,204$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.5 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4898…b591backed Yes | 1c | 3,915$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 66c | 3,000$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,947$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68f3…776cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,839$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 14c | 1,300$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefa…83f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…2381backed Yes | 13c | 1,239$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.04 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…7d48backed Yes | 5c | 1,037$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…2642backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b53…708bbacked Yes | 1c | 999.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 20c | 795.43$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.98 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.23 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 8c | 765.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…58c2backed Yes | 2c | 655.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 6%3 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 20c | 594.06$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -8.0wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…7b02backed Yes | 21c | 524.71$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.19 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 68c | 515$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.35 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 63c | 435$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…0333backed No | 67c | 401.52$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.72 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…1d13backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…e2c6backed Yes | 13c | 195.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 93 | 3.2%3 W · 90 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505d…7d62backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ee…5394backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…c37ebacked No | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…aad0backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d80…ef24backed Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…242dbacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $3.50 in October?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.20 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.40 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.50 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.60 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.70 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.80 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.10 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.30 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.80 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.50 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $6.00 in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.