Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $3.40 in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a6b2cd4ab198bcbff08cb675435524fd6ba2332ba79545f11d9101e7382bf87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f51…531ebacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 43c | 11,264$4,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,897.76 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bb…a429backed No | 56c | 10,000$5,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,400 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked No | 73c | 9,482$6,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,580.23 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 4c | 8,131$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.68 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 6,807$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8871…830abacked Yes | 48c | 6,678$3,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,176.64 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd311…82d5backed Yes | 5c | 5,908$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 2c | 5,128$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.83 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 4,436$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,583$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,387$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.74 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 7c | 1,531$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.34 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5c…7d29backed Yes | 13c | 1,500$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.99 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,454$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68f3…776cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,296$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 6c | 1,181$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 76c | 950$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.7 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 8c | 803.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.45 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…3733backed Yes | 44c | 788.69$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x062e…86fcbacked Yes | 20c | 599.06$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 12c | 535.3$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.28 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505d…7d62backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…7b02backed Yes | 21c | 476.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 20c | 301.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -8.0wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5d…b392backed Yes | 15c | 90.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…6ff5backed Yes | 49c | 85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…690dbacked No | 75c | 81.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…ccaabacked Yes | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ab…a8abbacked No | 60c | 33.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b31…31bebacked No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $3.40 in October?this page
- Will XRP dip to $1.50 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.00 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.20 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.40 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.50 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.60 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.70 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP dip to $2.80 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in October?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $3.10 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.30 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.50 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.80 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $4.50 in October?No won
- Will XRP reach $6.00 in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.