Us Politics · resolved market
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb96f092cb5d54138c6af2ae824bb276c3e20969fb2acfced30ac7f88f60862e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,577,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,852,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,577,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4f5…9663backed Yes | 6c | 46,461$2,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,998.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c3…fbbebacked Yes | 8c | 37,621$2,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,967 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa6…b321backed Yes | 8c | 32,365$2,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,435.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec2…9a10backed Yes | 4c | 28,043$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93aa…21f4backed Yes | 4c | 26,177$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe661…b59dbacked Yes | 8c | 24,155$1,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,932.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…91e7backed Yes | 6c | 24,083$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 4c | 22,747$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.98 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23ce…17dabacked Yes | 6c | 20,600$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…104bbacked Yes | 6c | 20,043$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd2…9ff4backed Yes | 6c | 18,771$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4841…98d1backed Yes | 7c | 17,526$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 13,709$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.34 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce4…374ebacked Yes | 5c | 11,988$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb1…0644backed Yes | 4c | 11,828$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…4831backed Yes | 3c | 11,522$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32bf…4e60backed Yes | 1c | 11,446$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732d…95e1backed Yes | 5c | 11,011$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 5c | 7,342$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fe…0675backed Yes | 5c | 6,951$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8a…3d53backed Yes | 8c | 6,758$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 7c | 6,615$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.69 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437a…c732backed Yes | 6c | 6,199$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…9209backed Yes | 5c | 6,108$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f31…f61ebacked Yes | 8c | 6,013$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 3c | 5,712$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.36 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x890b…17ddbacked Yes | 4c | 5,369$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 2c | 4,738$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ee…f451backed Yes | 10c | 4,568$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e7…f41fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,225$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.76 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…b46cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,107$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.7 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e9…cb9cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,011$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e3…7c8abacked Yes | 9c | 3,942$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28d2…a911backed Yes | 3c | 3,804$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…1a4dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,767$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cee…01d2backed Yes | 6c | 3,263$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37d9…c79dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,232$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…33ccbacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4e…a18ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,903$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d22…d98bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,859$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 2,787$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,623$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c23…b6a1backed Yes | 5c | 2,597$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…6790backed Yes | 5c | 2,357$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b85…4be3backed Yes | 6c | 2,085$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4014…39a4backed Yes | 5c | 1,967$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…7ecbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,851$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f6…4fd2backed Yes | 4c | 1,746$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 3c | 1,717$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…8ab7backed Yes | 6c | 1,638$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd925…f36fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…c26ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,488$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 3c | 1,431$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714e…232dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,409$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…c5abbacked Yes | 5c | 1,382$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce2…10e0backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596b…3560backed Yes | 1c | 1,263$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2d…4e85backed Yes | 7c | 1,225$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf311…fe1bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,214$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14dd…13eebacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…64d2backed Yes | 4c | 1,187$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…892bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,169$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…badcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,157$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…013ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,128$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…a54ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…781abacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…8369backed Yes | 6c | 1,075$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…68b3backed Yes | 5c | 1,018$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…3c42backed Yes | 5c | 1,014$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 1,003$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…7752backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 5c | 998.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c1…46ffbacked Yes | 8c | 998.63$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 6c | 932.83$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…508abacked Yes | 6c | 871.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf08f…127bbacked Yes | 3c | 849.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 7c | 827.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71eb…5c5abacked Yes | 3c | 755.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2235…0c24backed Yes | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c3…5684backed Yes | 2c | 719.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…4260backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed Yes | 5c | 713.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…1b55backed Yes | 4c | 699.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…16bbbacked Yes | 7c | 667.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb73…a4bebacked Yes | 5c | 648$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a8…dc91backed Yes | 7c | 642.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…7924backed Yes | 3c | 606.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…8965backed Yes | 7c | 602.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcd…2cc6backed Yes | 6c | 581.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f24…f47bbacked Yes | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…b37cbacked Yes | 5c | 561.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2c…2436backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2705…9796backed Yes | 3c | 552.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…0b2dbacked Yes | 5c | 542.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f33…0007backed Yes | 9c | 512.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ce…f9bfbacked Yes | 8c | 507.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…3f59backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e10…d411backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.