Middle East · resolved market
Iran strike on Israel before December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd611b44739cc5d52c4f95592606693644ec03208ccb35b293d6ee427b5cbde74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,317,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,356,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,317,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 459 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 11c | 195,959$21,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,370.54 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 32c | 123,313$39,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,044.56 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 9c | 109,034$10,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,350.01 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 74c | 84,610$62,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,167.31 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed Yes | 24c | 57,364$13,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,867.43 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…37debacked Yes | 9c | 43,374$3,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,954.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 65c | 30,634$19,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,833.66 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091c…5d48backed Yes | 9c | 24,304$2,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,273.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed No | 80c | 22,753$18,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,579.92 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 55c | 20,786$11,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,258.63 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…96a4backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f8…ca0dbacked No | 74c | 16,052$11,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,197.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 58c | 15,091$8,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,338.37 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 69c | 14,832$10,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,631.69 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…2339backed No | 62c | 14,725$9,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,661.52 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked No | 54c | 13,218$7,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,092.36 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +10.0wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…895fbacked Yes | 1c | 12,600$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.22 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf65…fde8backed Yes | 22c | 10,241$2,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,237.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…4231backed Yes | 55c | 10,142$5,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,534.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 9c | 9,410$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.51 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7caa…861abacked Yes | 10c | 9,020$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ca…54b1backed Yes | 12c | 7,174$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked No | 66c | 6,912$4,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,372.27 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed No | 67c | 6,641$4,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,184.1 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +10.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…2125backed Yes | 57c | 6,549$3,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,742.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534b…b321backed No | 68c | 6,372$4,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,028.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 5,820$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 10c | 5,818$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.83 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 9c | 5,581$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.74 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d22…4dbbbacked Yes | 33c | 5,242$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5afa…cafbbacked Yes | 35c | 5,084$1,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…6c3abacked Yes | 10c | 5,071$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4930…d78dbacked Yes | 48c | 5,057$2,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,452.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b64…9832backed Yes | 51c | 4,891$2,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,506.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab1b…b851backed Yes | 9c | 4,693$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a9…94b3backed No | 80c | 4,641$3,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked No | 41c | 4,172$1,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,474.95 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbd…ac29backed No | 62c | 4,033$2,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd073…b757backed No | 54c | 4,002$2,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,855.81 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 25c | 3,473$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…8a8abacked No | 58c | 3,420$1,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.13 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 3,251$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.9 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…68abbacked Yes | 39c | 3,114$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b8…a266backed No | 48c | 3,029$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,586.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7754…39e5backed Yes | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed No | 64c | 2,525$1,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.25 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7f…be25backed No | 60c | 2,500$1,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.3 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea2…69e6backed Yes | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 55c | 2,500$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.99 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…5208backed Yes | 47c | 2,360$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x304a…1badbacked Yes | 9c | 2,347$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -64%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 36c | 2,322$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.62 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x691b…fce0backed No | 61c | 2,319$1,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16a7…2ee3backed No | 79c | 1,840$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5f…90fdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,835$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0481…0954backed Yes | 44c | 1,835$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed Yes | 38c | 1,794$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.99 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4990…91bcbacked Yes | 23c | 1,632$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 17c | 1,570$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.8 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x139d…fe64backed Yes | 21c | 1,538$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.19 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…4bc0backed No | 72c | 1,506$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.81 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16b…d883backed Yes | 38c | 1,473$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.57 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd68…746abacked Yes | 41c | 1,468$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.9 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed Yes | 34c | 1,456$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.24 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4efb…ac4dbacked Yes | 46c | 1,445$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4780…348ebacked Yes | 57c | 1,442$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…6808backed Yes | 10c | 1,409$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +545.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…0843backed No | 69c | 1,388$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc723…44bebacked Yes | 12c | 1,383$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b86…4487backed Yes | 38c | 1,318$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…257dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,310$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed No | 76c | 1,289$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2e…40c1backed Yes | 51c | 1,268$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 63c | 1,250$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.98 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed Yes | 45c | 1,241$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7667…9680backed Yes | 8c | 1,240$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 53c | 1,231$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.52 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2a…4397backed Yes | 8c | 1,223$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed No | 59c | 1,217$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.09 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 34c | 1,206$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9883…eccebacked Yes | 10c | 1,200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…533bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,193$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.99 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…5eeebacked No | 61c | 1,186$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.78 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3e…03c7backed Yes | 39c | 1,145$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d53…b56ebacked Yes | 49c | 1,132$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 59c | 1,090$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.96 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6045…bec8backed Yes | 2c | 1,087$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 52c | 1,050$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ef…376ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,026$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 54c | 1,000$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.56 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…e74ebacked No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…9483backed Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…fd6dbacked No | 80c | 999.99$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 13c | 970.96$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.33 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb15f…e0d4backed Yes | 53c | 938.35$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…3a2dbacked Yes | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e25…814abacked Yes | 26c | 874.01$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.24 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf384…7f2dbacked Yes | 11c | 872.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.