Middle East · resolved market
Iran Nuke in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea7edb8353693d246fe8f3988d1140f8abe8743d413c52669031ea5be8e1eacd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,009,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,177,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,009,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 13c | 204,934$26,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,011.35 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d23…8f86backed Yes | 13c | 100,870$13,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,248.47 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 8c | 39,006$3,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,122.28 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456b…eb7ebacked Yes | 9c | 22,222$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe410…de46backed Yes | 14c | 12,885$1,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740.55 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 8c | 11,225$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.72 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 10c | 8,843$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.65 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f5…9663backed Yes | 15c | 7,508$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.68 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 16c | 7,398$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.77 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8048…53c9backed Yes | 15c | 6,334$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 14c | 5,590$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.31 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52c9…7f71backed Yes | 13c | 5,397$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 5,219$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.88 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 4c | 5,023$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf31d…eca9backed Yes | 16c | 4,772$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 21c | 4,620$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.2 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf311…fe1bbacked Yes | 13c | 3,899$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd049…5de7backed Yes | 15c | 3,842$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.36 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9790…85d7backed Yes | 14c | 3,582$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.2 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 33cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 3,401$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.44 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ff48backed Yes | 10c | 3,187$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e0…d94abacked Yes | 16c | 2,576$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…4f04backed Yes | 14c | 2,229$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…2354backed Yes | 5c | 2,220$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b9c6backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.25 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 15c | 1,946$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.46 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,833$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f8…0d34backed Yes | 13c | 1,831$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.78 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 8c | 1,745$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.65 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 5c | 1,659$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.39 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 13c | 1,362$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.21 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a5…5ac2backed Yes | 5c | 1,300$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,229$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.42 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…b8f5backed Yes | 8c | 1,229$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb011…2d13backed Yes | 19c | 1,222$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.87 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 19c | 1,057$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed Yes | 16c | 1,054$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4481…e934backed Yes | 15c | 1,022$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.6 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…c1f3backed Yes | 20c | 1,010$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd9…32d5backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6a…76c6backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1f…9cdebacked Yes | 14c | 983.88$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.74 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2e…5f5fbacked Yes | 14c | 950.29$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca4…3fc6backed Yes | 15c | 887.31$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…6498backed Yes | 16c | 767$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.05 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 4c | 714.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…9839backed Yes | 13c | 700$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1c…09f1backed Yes | 9c | 655.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd82…2d20backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…d321backed Yes | 12c | 623.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…3187backed Yes | 19c | 603.58$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc847…d3afbacked Yes | 2c | 601.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 4c | 600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…5c9fbacked Yes | 13c | 508.35$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79e7…f41fbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…a6d8backed Yes | 19c | 493.83$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ed…4934backed No | 80c | 470$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1743…655ebacked Yes | 16c | 449.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Yes | 16c | 424.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -9.5wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…8e91backed Yes | 12c | 419.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 414.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.1 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6c…689abacked Yes | 13c | 383.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d16…b5aebacked Yes | 7c | 370.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca76…1fc4backed Yes | 15c | 339.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9e…0a21backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4efb…ac4dbacked Yes | 15c | 302.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x039e…c5e0backed Yes | 12c | 300$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf595…8413backed Yes | 13c | 287.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2c…40d2backed Yes | 9c | 281.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…376dbacked Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…8d09backed Yes | 5c | 276$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 75c | 254$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c8…cbbcbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 13c | 239$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dea…ec31backed Yes | 25c | 228.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7b…0556backed Yes | 8c | 225$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 11c | 205.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49fb…8691backed Yes | 9c | 201.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…3d22backed Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…b1afbacked Yes | 6c | 172.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d7…bdeebacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56bf…0b04backed Yes | 7c | 143$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…1ccebacked No | 76c | 137.8$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0496…d6d7backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa947…72c9backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 14c | 128.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43dd…5291backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x157d…c16fbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675c…2224backed Yes | 17c | 115.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9d…3ea2backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6b…9b91backed Yes | 15c | 110.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.